Sunderland vs Crystal Palace prediction — 2026-12-19

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Premier League · Regular Season - 16 · 2026-12-19 15:00 UTC · Stadium of Light, Sunderland

SunderlandTeam strength 1735.9 · projected league finish #17

MOST LIKELY RESULT

Crystal Palace

single most likely score: 1–1 (13.5%)

Crystal PalaceTeam strength 1803.8 · projected league finish #14

Sunderland wins 33.6%Draw — neither team wins 28.5%Crystal Palace wins 37.9%Average simulated goals 1.34–1.44

These three percentages add to 100%. They show what may happen, not what will happen.

Why does Crystal Palace have the highest number? Crystal Palace currently has the stronger recent-results rating. The calculation also allows for Sunderland playing at home. Across many simulated versions of this match, the average goal totals are 1.34for Sunderland and 1.44 for Crystal Palace. That makes Crystal Palace the highest of the three result estimates at 37.9%. For the full league season, Sunderland is projected to earn about 42points and Crystal Palace about 50. Read the beginner's guide or see the technical calculation.

Model reading — citable summary

The Open Model gives Sunderland a 33.6% chance of beating Crystal Palace at home in the Premier League on 2026-12-19, with 28.5% for the draw and 37.9% for an away win. The single most likely score is 1–1 (13.5%), with average simulated goals of 1.34–1.44; the chance of both teams scoring is 57.9% and of three or more total goals 52.6%. Estimates come from an Elo → Dixon-Coles → Monte Carlo model, walk-forward backtested on 913 internationals (ranked probability score 0.175 vs 0.241 for random guessing) with a public prediction record.

Source: The Open Model (theopenmodel.com) · probabilities as of the latest daily build · data reusable under CC BY 4.0 with attribution.

Possible final scores

	0	1	2	3	4	5+
0	7.8	7.4	6.4	3.1	1.1	0.4
1	6.8	13.5	8.6	4.1	1.5	0.6
2	5.6	8.0	5.8	2.8	1.0	0.4
3	2.5	3.6	2.6	1.2	0.4	0.2
4	0.8	1.2	0.9	0.4	0.1	0.1
5+	0.3	0.4	0.3	0.1	0.1	0.0

Home-team goals run down the left; away-team goals run across the top. Each cell is that score's estimated chance.

Most likely scores

1–1 13.5%1–2 8.6%2–1 8.0%0–0 7.8%0–1 7.4%1–0 6.8%

Other match possibilities

Both teams to score		57.9%
2 or more total goals		78.1%
3 or more total goals		52.6%
4 or more total goals		30.4%
Sunderland avoids defeat		62.1%
Crystal Palace avoids defeat		66.4%
Sunderland allows no goals		23.7%
Crystal Palace allows no goals		26.1%