Stuttgart vs Union Berlin prediction — 2026-12-12

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Bundesliga · Regular Season - 13 · 2026-12-12 14:30 UTC · MHPArena, Stuttgart

StuttgartTeam strength 1763.8 · projected league finish #4

MOST LIKELY RESULT

Stuttgart

single most likely score: 1–1 (11.9%)

Union BerlinTeam strength 1619.4 · projected league finish #12

Stuttgart wins 58.7%Draw — neither team wins 24.9%Union Berlin wins 16.4%Average simulated goals 1.87–0.91

These three percentages add to 100%. They show what may happen, not what will happen.

Why does Stuttgart have the highest number? Stuttgart currently has the stronger recent-results rating. The calculation also allows for Stuttgart playing at home. Across many simulated versions of this match, the average goal totals are 1.87for Stuttgart and 0.91 for Union Berlin. That makes Stuttgart the highest of the three result estimates at 58.7%. For the full league season, Stuttgart is projected to earn about 57points and Union Berlin about 40. Read the beginner's guide or see the technical calculation.

Model reading — citable summary

The Open Model gives Stuttgart a 58.7% chance of beating Union Berlin at home in the Bundesliga on 2026-12-12, with 24.9% for the draw and 16.4% for an away win. The single most likely score is 1–1 (11.9%), with average simulated goals of 1.87–0.91; the chance of both teams scoring is 51.9% and of three or more total goals 52.6%. Estimates come from an Elo → Dixon-Coles → Monte Carlo model, walk-forward backtested on 913 internationals (ranked probability score 0.175 vs 0.241 for random guessing) with a public prediction record.

Source: The Open Model (theopenmodel.com) · probabilities as of the latest daily build · data reusable under CC BY 4.0 with attribution.

Possible final scores

	0	1	2	3	4	5+
0	7.6	4.3	2.6	0.8	0.2	0.0
1	10.2	11.9	4.8	1.4	0.3	0.1
2	10.9	9.9	4.5	1.4	0.3	0.1
3	6.8	6.2	2.8	0.8	0.2	0.0
4	3.2	2.9	1.3	0.4	0.1	0.0
5+	1.7	1.5	0.7	0.2	0.0	0.0

Home-team goals run down the left; away-team goals run across the top. Each cell is that score's estimated chance.

Most likely scores

1–1 11.9%2–0 10.9%1–0 10.2%2–1 9.9%0–0 7.6%3–0 6.8%

Other match possibilities

Both teams to score		51.9%
2 or more total goals		77.9%
3 or more total goals		52.6%
4 or more total goals		30.4%
Stuttgart avoids defeat		83.6%
Union Berlin avoids defeat		41.3%
Stuttgart allows no goals		40.3%
Union Berlin allows no goals		15.4%