Stuttgart vs Leverkusen prediction — 2027-03-06

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Bundesliga · Regular Season - 25 · 2027-03-06 14:30 UTC · MHPArena, Stuttgart

StuttgartTeam strength 1763.8 · projected league finish #4

MOST LIKELY RESULT

Stuttgart

single most likely score: 1–1 (13.5%)

LeverkusenTeam strength 1804 · projected league finish #3

Stuttgart wins 36.7%Draw — neither team wins 28.5%Leverkusen wins 34.8%Average simulated goals 1.41–1.37

These three percentages add to 100%. They show what may happen, not what will happen.

Why does Stuttgart have the highest number? Leverkusen currently has the stronger recent-results rating. The calculation also allows for Stuttgart playing at home. Across many simulated versions of this match, the average goal totals are 1.41for Stuttgart and 1.37 for Leverkusen. That makes Stuttgart the highest of the three result estimates at 36.7%. For the full league season, Stuttgart is projected to earn about 57points and Leverkusen about 62. Read the beginner's guide or see the technical calculation.

Model reading — citable summary

The Open Model gives Stuttgart a 36.7% chance of beating Leverkusen at home in the Bundesliga on 2027-03-06, with 28.5% for the draw and 34.8% for an away win. The single most likely score is 1–1 (13.5%), with average simulated goals of 1.41–1.37; the chance of both teams scoring is 58.0% and of three or more total goals 52.6%. Estimates come from an Elo → Dixon-Coles → Monte Carlo model, walk-forward backtested on 913 internationals (ranked probability score 0.175 vs 0.241 for random guessing) with a public prediction record.

Source: The Open Model (theopenmodel.com) · probabilities as of the latest daily build · data reusable under CC BY 4.0 with attribution.

Possible final scores

	0	1	2	3	4	5+
0	7.8	6.9	5.8	2.7	0.9	0.3
1	7.2	13.5	8.2	3.7	1.3	0.4
2	6.2	8.5	5.8	2.6	0.9	0.3
3	2.9	4.0	2.7	1.2	0.4	0.1
4	1.0	1.4	1.0	0.4	0.2	0.1
5+	0.4	0.5	0.4	0.2	0.1	0.0

Home-team goals run down the left; away-team goals run across the top. Each cell is that score's estimated chance.

Most likely scores

1–1 13.5%2–1 8.5%1–2 8.2%0–0 7.8%1–0 7.2%0–1 6.9%

Other match possibilities

Both teams to score		58.0%
2 or more total goals		78.1%
3 or more total goals		52.6%
4 or more total goals		30.4%
Stuttgart avoids defeat		65.2%
Leverkusen avoids defeat		63.3%
Stuttgart allows no goals		25.4%
Leverkusen allows no goals		24.4%