Strasbourg vs Paris SG prediction — 2026-10-17

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Ligue 1 · Regular Season - 7 · 2026-10-17 15:00 UTC · Stade de la Meinau, Strasbourg

StrasbourgTeam strength 1710.8 · projected league finish #8

MOST LIKELY RESULT

Paris SG

single most likely score: 1–1 (11.6%)

Paris SGTeam strength 1967.9 · projected league finish #1

Strasbourg wins 15.2%Draw — neither team wins 24.3%Paris SG wins 60.5%Average simulated goals 0.87–1.91

These three percentages add to 100%. They show what may happen, not what will happen.

Why does Paris SG have the highest number? Paris SG currently has the stronger recent-results rating. The calculation also allows for Strasbourg playing at home. Across many simulated versions of this match, the average goal totals are 0.87for Strasbourg and 1.91 for Paris SG. That makes Paris SG the highest of the three result estimates at 60.5%. For the full league season, Strasbourg is projected to earn about 52points and Paris SG about 81. Read the beginner's guide or see the technical calculation.

Model reading — citable summary

The Open Model gives Strasbourg a 15.2% chance of beating Paris SG at home in the Ligue 1 on 2026-10-17, with 24.3% for the draw and 60.5% for an away win. The single most likely score is 1–1 (11.6%), with average simulated goals of 0.87–1.91; the chance of both teams scoring is 50.8% and of three or more total goals 52.6%. Estimates come from an Elo → Dixon-Coles → Monte Carlo model, walk-forward backtested on 913 internationals (ranked probability score 0.175 vs 0.241 for random guessing) with a public prediction record.

Source: The Open Model (theopenmodel.com) · probabilities as of the latest daily build · data reusable under CC BY 4.0 with attribution.

Possible final scores

	0	1	2	3	4	5+
0	7.5	10.5	11.3	7.2	3.4	1.9
1	4.1	11.6	9.8	6.3	3.0	1.6
2	2.3	4.5	4.3	2.7	1.3	0.7
3	0.7	1.3	1.2	0.8	0.4	0.2
4	0.1	0.3	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.0
5+	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0

Home-team goals run down the left; away-team goals run across the top. Each cell is that score's estimated chance.

Most likely scores

1–1 11.6%0–2 11.3%0–1 10.5%1–2 9.8%0–0 7.5%0–3 7.2%

Other match possibilities

Both teams to score		50.8%
2 or more total goals		77.9%
3 or more total goals		52.6%
4 or more total goals		30.4%
Strasbourg avoids defeat		39.5%
Paris SG avoids defeat		84.8%
Strasbourg allows no goals		14.8%
Paris SG allows no goals		41.9%