Strasbourg vs Lorient prediction — 2026-12-05

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Ligue 1 · Regular Season - 13 · 2026-12-05 16:00 UTC · Stade de la Meinau, Strasbourg

StrasbourgTeam strength 1710.8 · projected league finish #8

MOST LIKELY RESULT

Strasbourg

single most likely score: 1–1 (12.9%)

LorientTeam strength 1639.1 · projected league finish #10

Strasbourg wins 50.0%Draw — neither team wins 27.1%Lorient wins 23.0%Average simulated goals 1.69–1.09

These three percentages add to 100%. They show what may happen, not what will happen.

Why does Strasbourg have the highest number? Strasbourg currently has the stronger recent-results rating. The calculation also allows for Strasbourg playing at home. Across many simulated versions of this match, the average goal totals are 1.69for Strasbourg and 1.09 for Lorient. That makes Strasbourg the highest of the three result estimates at 50.0%. For the full league season, Strasbourg is projected to earn about 52points and Lorient about 44. Read the beginner's guide or see the technical calculation.

Model reading — citable summary

The Open Model gives Strasbourg a 50.0% chance of beating Lorient at home in the Ligue 1 on 2026-12-05, with 27.1% for the draw and 23.0% for an away win. The single most likely score is 1–1 (12.9%), with average simulated goals of 1.69–1.09; the chance of both teams scoring is 55.6% and of three or more total goals 52.6%. Estimates come from an Elo → Dixon-Coles → Monte Carlo model, walk-forward backtested on 913 internationals (ranked probability score 0.175 vs 0.241 for random guessing) with a public prediction record.

Source: The Open Model (theopenmodel.com) · probabilities as of the latest daily build · data reusable under CC BY 4.0 with attribution.

Possible final scores

	0	1	2	3	4	5+
0	7.7	5.3	3.7	1.3	0.4	0.1
1	9.0	12.9	6.2	2.3	0.6	0.2
2	8.9	9.7	5.3	1.9	0.5	0.1
3	5.0	5.4	3.0	1.1	0.3	0.1
4	2.1	2.3	1.3	0.5	0.1	0.0
5+	1.0	1.1	0.6	0.2	0.1	0.0

Home-team goals run down the left; away-team goals run across the top. Each cell is that score's estimated chance.

Most likely scores

1–1 12.9%2–1 9.7%1–0 9.0%2–0 8.9%0–0 7.7%1–2 6.2%

Other match possibilities

Both teams to score		55.6%
2 or more total goals		78.1%
3 or more total goals		52.6%
4 or more total goals		30.4%
Strasbourg avoids defeat		77.0%
Lorient avoids defeat		50.0%
Strasbourg allows no goals		33.6%
Lorient allows no goals		18.4%