Home › Predictions › Schalke vs Dortmund
Bundesliga · Regular Season - 12 · 2026-12-05 14:30 UTC · Veltins Arena, Gelsenkirchen
Schalke
DortmundThese three percentages add to 100%. They show what may happen, not what will happen.
Why does Dortmund have the highest number? Dortmund currently has the stronger recent-results rating. The calculation also allows for Schalke playing at home. Across many simulated versions of this match, the average goal totals are 0.72for Schalke and 2.06 for Dortmund. That makes Dortmund the highest of the three result estimates at 67.2%. For the full league season, Schalke is projected to earn about 30points and Dortmund about 65. Read the beginner's guide or see the technical calculation.
The Open Model gives Schalke a 10.9% chance of beating Dortmund at home in the Bundesliga on 2026-12-05, with 21.9% for the draw and 67.2% for an away win. The single most likely score is 0–2 (13.1%), with average simulated goals of 0.72–2.06; the chance of both teams scoring is 46.2% and of three or more total goals 52.6%. Estimates come from an Elo → Dixon-Coles → Monte Carlo model, walk-forward backtested on 913 internationals (ranked probability score 0.175 vs 0.241 for random guessing) with a public prediction record.
Source: The Open Model (theopenmodel.com) · probabilities as of the latest daily build · data reusable under CC BY 4.0 with attribution.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 11.5 | 13.1 | 9.0 | 4.6 | 2.8 |
| 1 | 3.3 | 10.4 | 9.5 | 6.5 | 3.3 | 2.0 |
| 2 | 1.6 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Home-team goals run down the left; away-team goals run across the top. Each cell is that score's estimated chance.
| Both teams to score | 46.2% | |
| 2 or more total goals | 77.8% | |
| 3 or more total goals | 52.6% | |
| 4 or more total goals | 30.4% | |
| Schalke avoids defeat | 32.8% | |
| Dortmund avoids defeat | 89.1% | |
| Schalke allows no goals | 12.8% | |
| Dortmund allows no goals | 48.4% |
Forwards to watch
2026–27 squads · API-Football
