Roma vs Genoa prediction — 2026-10-18

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Serie A · Regular Season - 7 · 2026-10-18 16:30 UTC · Stadio Olimpico, Rome

RomaTeam strength 1793.5 · projected league finish #2

MOST LIKELY RESULT

Roma

single most likely score: 2–0 (11.8%)

GenoaTeam strength 1618.2 · projected league finish #14

Roma wins 62.3%Draw — neither team wins 23.7%Genoa wins 13.9%Average simulated goals 1.95–0.83

These three percentages add to 100%. They show what may happen, not what will happen.

Why does Roma have the highest number? Roma currently has the stronger recent-results rating. The calculation also allows for Roma playing at home. Across many simulated versions of this match, the average goal totals are 1.95for Roma and 0.83 for Genoa. That makes Roma the highest of the three result estimates at 62.3%. For the full league season, Roma is projected to earn about 68points and Genoa about 45. Read the beginner's guide or see the technical calculation.

Model reading — citable summary

The Open Model gives Roma a 62.3% chance of beating Genoa at home in the Serie A on 2026-10-18, with 23.7% for the draw and 13.9% for an away win. The single most likely score is 2–0 (11.8%), with average simulated goals of 1.95–0.83; the chance of both teams scoring is 49.7% and of three or more total goals 52.6%. Estimates come from an Elo → Dixon-Coles → Monte Carlo model, walk-forward backtested on 913 internationals (ranked probability score 0.175 vs 0.241 for random guessing) with a public prediction record.

Source: The Open Model (theopenmodel.com) · probabilities as of the latest daily build · data reusable under CC BY 4.0 with attribution.

Possible final scores

	0	1	2	3	4
0	7.5	3.8	2.1	0.6	0.1
1	10.8	11.3	4.2	1.2	0.2
2	11.8	9.8	4.1	1.1	0.2
3	7.7	6.4	2.6	0.7	0.2
4	3.7	3.1	1.3	0.4	0.1
5+	2.1	1.7	0.7	0.2	0.0

Home-team goals run down the left; away-team goals run across the top. Each cell is that score's estimated chance.

Most likely scores

2–0 11.8%1–1 11.3%1–0 10.8%2–1 9.8%3–0 7.7%0–0 7.5%

Other match possibilities

Both teams to score		49.7%
2 or more total goals		77.9%
3 or more total goals		52.6%
4 or more total goals		30.4%
Roma avoids defeat		86.1%
Genoa avoids defeat		37.7%
Roma allows no goals		43.6%
Genoa allows no goals		14.2%