Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano prediction — 2026-09-13

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La Liga · Regular Season - 5 · 2026-09-13 15:00 UTC

Real MadridTeam strength 1922.9 · projected league finish #2

MOST LIKELY RESULT

Real Madrid

single most likely score: 2–0 (13.0%)

Rayo VallecanoTeam strength 1707.3 · projected league finish #6

Real Madrid wins 67.0%Draw — neither team wins 22.0%Rayo Vallecano wins 11.0%Average simulated goals 2.05–0.73

These three percentages add to 100%. They show what may happen, not what will happen.

Why does Real Madrid have the highest number? Real Madrid currently has the stronger recent-results rating. The calculation also allows for Real Madrid playing at home. Across many simulated versions of this match, the average goal totals are 2.05for Real Madrid and 0.73 for Rayo Vallecano. That makes Real Madrid the highest of the three result estimates at 67.0%. For the full league season, Real Madrid is projected to earn about 82points and Rayo Vallecano about 55. Read the beginner's guide or see the technical calculation.

Model reading — citable summary

The Open Model gives Real Madrid a 67.0% chance of beating Rayo Vallecano at home in the La Liga on 2026-09-13, with 22.0% for the draw and 11.0% for an away win. The single most likely score is 2–0 (13.0%), with average simulated goals of 2.05–0.73; the chance of both teams scoring is 46.3% and of three or more total goals 52.6%. Estimates come from an Elo → Dixon-Coles → Monte Carlo model, walk-forward backtested on 913 internationals (ranked probability score 0.175 vs 0.241 for random guessing) with a public prediction record.

Source: The Open Model (theopenmodel.com) · probabilities as of the latest daily build · data reusable under CC BY 4.0 with attribution.

Possible final scores

	0	1	2	3	4
0	7.4	3.3	1.7	0.4	0.1
1	11.5	10.5	3.4	0.8	0.2
2	13.0	9.5	3.5	0.8	0.2
3	8.9	6.5	2.4	0.6	0.1
4	4.6	3.3	1.2	0.3	0.1
5+	2.8	2.0	0.7	0.2	0.0

Home-team goals run down the left; away-team goals run across the top. Each cell is that score's estimated chance.

Most likely scores

2–0 13.0%1–0 11.5%1–1 10.5%2–1 9.5%3–0 8.9%0–0 7.4%

Other match possibilities

Both teams to score		46.3%
2 or more total goals		77.8%
3 or more total goals		52.6%
4 or more total goals		30.4%
Real Madrid avoids defeat		89.0%
Rayo Vallecano avoids defeat		33.0%
Real Madrid allows no goals		48.2%
Rayo Vallecano allows no goals		12.9%