Home › Predictions › Real Madrid vs Bilbao
La Liga · Regular Season - 24 · 2027-02-14 16:00 UTC
Real Madrid
BilbaoThese three percentages add to 100%. They show what may happen, not what will happen.
Why does Real Madrid have the highest number? Real Madrid currently has the stronger recent-results rating. The calculation also allows for Real Madrid playing at home. Across many simulated versions of this match, the average goal totals are 2.13for Real Madrid and 0.66 for Bilbao. That makes Real Madrid the highest of the three result estimates at 70.3%. For the full league season, Real Madrid is projected to earn about 82points and Bilbao about 51. Read the beginner's guide or see the technical calculation.
The Open Model gives Real Madrid a 70.3% chance of beating Bilbao at home in the La Liga on 2027-02-14, with 20.6% for the draw and 9.1% for an away win. The single most likely score is 2–0 (14.0%), with average simulated goals of 2.13–0.66; the chance of both teams scoring is 43.5% and of three or more total goals 52.6%. Estimates come from an Elo → Dixon-Coles → Monte Carlo model, walk-forward backtested on 913 internationals (ranked probability score 0.175 vs 0.241 for random guessing) with a public prediction record.
Source: The Open Model (theopenmodel.com) · probabilities as of the latest daily build · data reusable under CC BY 4.0 with attribution.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 9.8 | 2.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 14.0 | 9.2 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 9.9 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 5.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 3.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Home-team goals run down the left; away-team goals run across the top. Each cell is that score's estimated chance.
| Both teams to score | 43.5% | |
| 2 or more total goals | 77.7% | |
| 3 or more total goals | 52.6% | |
| 4 or more total goals | 30.4% | |
| Real Madrid avoids defeat | 90.9% | |
| Bilbao avoids defeat | 29.7% | |
| Real Madrid allows no goals | 51.9% | |
| Bilbao allows no goals | 11.9% |
| Club | Expected points | Champion | Top four | Relegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid | 82 | 34.2% | 99.4% | — |
| Bilbao | 51 | — | 4.9% | 5.4% |
Forwards to watch
2026–27 squads · API-Football
