Rayo Vallecano vs Malaga prediction — 2026-12-20

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La Liga · Regular Season - 17 · 2026-12-20 16:00 UTC · Campo de Futbol de Vallecas, Madrid

Rayo VallecanoTeam strength 1707.3 · projected league finish #6

MOST LIKELY RESULT

Rayo Vallecano

single most likely score: 1–1 (12.0%)

MalagaTeam strength 1568.6 · projected league finish #19

Rayo Vallecano wins 58.0%Draw — neither team wins 25.1%Malaga wins 16.9%Average simulated goals 1.86–0.92

These three percentages add to 100%. They show what may happen, not what will happen.

Why does Rayo Vallecano have the highest number? Rayo Vallecano currently has the stronger recent-results rating. The calculation also allows for Rayo Vallecano playing at home. Across many simulated versions of this match, the average goal totals are 1.86for Rayo Vallecano and 0.92 for Malaga. That makes Rayo Vallecano the highest of the three result estimates at 58.0%. For the full league season, Rayo Vallecano is projected to earn about 55points and Malaga about 37. Read the beginner's guide or see the technical calculation.

Model reading — citable summary

The Open Model gives Rayo Vallecano a 58.0% chance of beating Malaga at home in the La Liga on 2026-12-20, with 25.1% for the draw and 16.9% for an away win. The single most likely score is 1–1 (12.0%), with average simulated goals of 1.86–0.92; the chance of both teams scoring is 52.2% and of three or more total goals 52.6%. Estimates come from an Elo → Dixon-Coles → Monte Carlo model, walk-forward backtested on 913 internationals (ranked probability score 0.175 vs 0.241 for random guessing) with a public prediction record.

Source: The Open Model (theopenmodel.com) · probabilities as of the latest daily build · data reusable under CC BY 4.0 with attribution.

Possible final scores

	0	1	2	3	4	5+
0	7.6	4.3	2.6	0.8	0.2	0.0
1	10.1	12.0	4.9	1.5	0.3	0.1
2	10.7	9.9	4.6	1.4	0.3	0.1
3	6.6	6.1	2.8	0.9	0.2	0.0
4	3.1	2.8	1.3	0.4	0.1	0.0
5+	1.6	1.5	0.7	0.2	0.0	0.0

Home-team goals run down the left; away-team goals run across the top. Each cell is that score's estimated chance.

Most likely scores

1–1 12.0%2–0 10.7%1–0 10.1%2–1 9.9%0–0 7.6%3–0 6.6%

Other match possibilities

Both teams to score		52.2%
2 or more total goals		77.9%
3 or more total goals		52.6%
4 or more total goals		30.4%
Rayo Vallecano avoids defeat		83.1%
Malaga avoids defeat		42.0%
Rayo Vallecano allows no goals		39.8%
Malaga allows no goals		15.6%