Rayo Vallecano vs Barcelona prediction — 2027-03-21

Home › Predictions › Rayo Vallecano vs Barcelona

La Liga · Regular Season - 29 · 2027-03-21 16:00 UTC · Campo de Futbol de Vallecas, Madrid

Rayo VallecanoTeam strength 1707.3 · projected league finish #6

MOST LIKELY RESULT

Barcelona

single most likely score: 1–1 (11.9%)

BarcelonaTeam strength 1951.6 · projected league finish #1

Rayo Vallecano wins 16.2%Draw — neither team wins 24.8%Barcelona wins 59.0%Average simulated goals 0.90–1.88

These three percentages add to 100%. They show what may happen, not what will happen.

Why does Barcelona have the highest number? Barcelona currently has the stronger recent-results rating. The calculation also allows for Rayo Vallecano playing at home. Across many simulated versions of this match, the average goal totals are 0.90for Rayo Vallecano and 1.88 for Barcelona. That makes Barcelona the highest of the three result estimates at 59.0%. For the full league season, Rayo Vallecano is projected to earn about 55points and Barcelona about 86. Read the beginner's guide or see the technical calculation.

Model reading — citable summary

The Open Model gives Rayo Vallecano a 16.2% chance of beating Barcelona at home in the La Liga on 2027-03-21, with 24.8% for the draw and 59.0% for an away win. The single most likely score is 1–1 (11.9%), with average simulated goals of 0.90–1.88; the chance of both teams scoring is 51.7% and of three or more total goals 52.6%. Estimates come from an Elo → Dixon-Coles → Monte Carlo model, walk-forward backtested on 913 internationals (ranked probability score 0.175 vs 0.241 for random guessing) with a public prediction record.

Source: The Open Model (theopenmodel.com) · probabilities as of the latest daily build · data reusable under CC BY 4.0 with attribution.

Possible final scores

	0	1	2	3	4	5+
0	7.6	10.3	10.9	6.9	3.2	1.7
1	4.2	11.9	9.9	6.2	2.9	1.5
2	2.5	4.7	4.5	2.8	1.3	0.7
3	0.8	1.4	1.3	0.8	0.4	0.2
4	0.2	0.3	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.0
5+	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0

Home-team goals run down the left; away-team goals run across the top. Each cell is that score's estimated chance.

Most likely scores

1–1 11.9%0–2 10.9%0–1 10.3%1–2 9.9%0–0 7.6%0–3 6.9%

Other match possibilities

Both teams to score		51.7%
2 or more total goals		77.9%
3 or more total goals		52.6%
4 or more total goals		30.4%
Rayo Vallecano avoids defeat		41.0%
Barcelona avoids defeat		83.8%
Rayo Vallecano allows no goals		15.3%
Barcelona allows no goals		40.6%