Rayo Vallecano vs Atletico prediction — 2027-01-03

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La Liga · Regular Season - 18 · 2027-01-03 16:00 UTC · Campo de Futbol de Vallecas, Madrid

Rayo VallecanoTeam strength 1707.3 · projected league finish #6

MOST LIKELY RESULT

Atletico

single most likely score: 1–1 (13.3%)

AtleticoTeam strength 1827.7 · projected league finish #3

Rayo Vallecano wins 27.9%Draw — neither team wins 28.0%Atletico wins 44.1%Average simulated goals 1.21–1.57

These three percentages add to 100%. They show what may happen, not what will happen.

Why does Atletico have the highest number? Atletico currently has the stronger recent-results rating. The calculation also allows for Rayo Vallecano playing at home. Across many simulated versions of this match, the average goal totals are 1.21for Rayo Vallecano and 1.57 for Atletico. That makes Atletico the highest of the three result estimates at 44.1%. For the full league season, Rayo Vallecano is projected to earn about 55points and Atletico about 71. Read the beginner's guide or see the technical calculation.

Model reading — citable summary

The Open Model gives Rayo Vallecano a 27.9% chance of beating Atletico at home in the La Liga on 2027-01-03, with 28.0% for the draw and 44.1% for an away win. The single most likely score is 1–1 (13.3%), with average simulated goals of 1.21–1.57; the chance of both teams scoring is 57.1% and of three or more total goals 52.6%. Estimates come from an Elo → Dixon-Coles → Monte Carlo model, walk-forward backtested on 913 internationals (ranked probability score 0.175 vs 0.241 for random guessing) with a public prediction record.

Source: The Open Model (theopenmodel.com) · probabilities as of the latest daily build · data reusable under CC BY 4.0 with attribution.

Possible final scores

	0	1	2	3	4	5+
0	7.7	8.2	7.6	4.0	1.6	0.7
1	6.0	13.3	9.2	4.8	1.9	0.8
2	4.5	7.1	5.6	2.9	1.2	0.5
3	1.8	2.9	2.3	1.2	0.5	0.2
4	0.6	0.9	0.7	0.4	0.1	0.1
5+	0.2	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0

Home-team goals run down the left; away-team goals run across the top. Each cell is that score's estimated chance.

Most likely scores

1–1 13.3%1–2 9.2%0–1 8.2%0–0 7.7%0–2 7.6%2–1 7.1%

Other match possibilities

Both teams to score		57.1%
2 or more total goals		78.1%
3 or more total goals		52.6%
4 or more total goals		30.4%
Rayo Vallecano avoids defeat		55.9%
Atletico avoids defeat		72.1%
Rayo Vallecano allows no goals		20.8%
Atletico allows no goals		29.8%