Home › Predictions › Parma vs Monza
Serie A · Regular Season - 3 · 2026-09-06 13:00 UTC · Stadio Ennio Tardini, Parma
Parma
MonzaThese three percentages add to 100%. They show what may happen, not what will happen.
Why does Parma have the highest number? Parma currently has the stronger recent-results rating. The calculation also allows for Parma playing at home. Across many simulated versions of this match, the average goal totals are 1.65for Parma and 1.13 for Monza. That makes Parma the highest of the three result estimates at 48.1%. For the full league season, Parma is projected to earn about 42points and Monza about 35. Read the beginner's guide or see the technical calculation.
The Open Model gives Parma a 48.1% chance of beating Monza at home in the Serie A on 2026-09-06, with 27.4% for the draw and 24.5% for an away win. The single most likely score is 1–1 (13.1%), with average simulated goals of 1.65–1.13; the chance of both teams scoring is 56.2% and of three or more total goals 52.6%. Estimates come from an Elo → Dixon-Coles → Monte Carlo model, walk-forward backtested on 913 internationals (ranked probability score 0.175 vs 0.241 for random guessing) with a public prediction record.
Source: The Open Model (theopenmodel.com) · probabilities as of the latest daily build · data reusable under CC BY 4.0 with attribution.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 5.5 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 13.1 | 6.5 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.5 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 5.3 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Home-team goals run down the left; away-team goals run across the top. Each cell is that score's estimated chance.
| Both teams to score | 56.2% | |
| 2 or more total goals | 78.1% | |
| 3 or more total goals | 52.6% | |
| 4 or more total goals | 30.4% | |
| Parma avoids defeat | 75.5% | |
| Monza avoids defeat | 51.9% | |
| Parma allows no goals | 32.3% | |
| Monza allows no goals | 19.2% |
Forwards to watch
2026–27 squads · API-Football
