Paris SG vs Strasbourg prediction — 2027-03-20

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Ligue 1 · Regular Season - 25 · 2027-03-20 16:00 UTC · Parc des Princes, Paris

Paris SGTeam strength 1967.9 · projected league finish #1

MOST LIKELY RESULT

Paris SG

single most likely score: 2–0 (14.4%)

StrasbourgTeam strength 1710.8 · projected league finish #8

Paris SG wins 71.6%Draw — neither team wins 20.0%Strasbourg wins 8.3%Average simulated goals 2.16–0.63

These three percentages add to 100%. They show what may happen, not what will happen.

Why does Paris SG have the highest number? Paris SG currently has the stronger recent-results rating. The calculation also allows for Paris SG playing at home. Across many simulated versions of this match, the average goal totals are 2.16for Paris SG and 0.63 for Strasbourg. That makes Paris SG the highest of the three result estimates at 71.6%. For the full league season, Paris SG is projected to earn about 81points and Strasbourg about 52. Read the beginner's guide or see the technical calculation.

Model reading — citable summary

The Open Model gives Paris SG a 71.6% chance of beating Strasbourg at home in the Ligue 1 on 2027-03-20, with 20.0% for the draw and 8.3% for an away win. The single most likely score is 2–0 (14.4%), with average simulated goals of 2.16–0.63; the chance of both teams scoring is 42.2% and of three or more total goals 52.6%. Estimates come from an Elo → Dixon-Coles → Monte Carlo model, walk-forward backtested on 913 internationals (ranked probability score 0.175 vs 0.241 for random guessing) with a public prediction record.

Source: The Open Model (theopenmodel.com) · probabilities as of the latest daily build · data reusable under CC BY 4.0 with attribution.

Possible final scores

	0	1	2	3	4
0	7.3	2.8	1.2	0.3	0.0
1	12.3	9.5	2.6	0.5	0.1
2	14.4	9.0	2.8	0.6	0.1
3	10.3	6.5	2.0	0.4	0.1
4	5.6	3.5	1.1	0.2	0.0
5+	3.6	2.3	0.7	0.1	0.0

Home-team goals run down the left; away-team goals run across the top. Each cell is that score's estimated chance.

Most likely scores

2–0 14.4%1–0 12.3%3–0 10.3%1–1 9.5%2–1 9.0%0–0 7.3%

Other match possibilities

Both teams to score		42.2%
2 or more total goals		77.6%
3 or more total goals		52.6%
4 or more total goals		30.4%
Paris SG avoids defeat		91.7%
Strasbourg avoids defeat		28.4%
Paris SG allows no goals		53.5%
Strasbourg allows no goals		11.6%