Paris SG vs Lens prediction — 2027-02-28

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Ligue 1 · Regular Season - 22 · 2027-02-28 19:45 UTC · Parc des Princes, Paris

Paris SGTeam strength 1967.9 · projected league finish #1

MOST LIKELY RESULT

Paris SG

single most likely score: 2–0 (12.6%)

LensTeam strength 1767 · projected league finish #2

Paris SG wins 65.3%Draw — neither team wins 22.7%Lens wins 12.0%Average simulated goals 2.01–0.77

These three percentages add to 100%. They show what may happen, not what will happen.

Why does Paris SG have the highest number? Paris SG currently has the stronger recent-results rating. The calculation also allows for Paris SG playing at home. Across many simulated versions of this match, the average goal totals are 2.01for Paris SG and 0.77 for Lens. That makes Paris SG the highest of the three result estimates at 65.3%. For the full league season, Paris SG is projected to earn about 81points and Lens about 59. Read the beginner's guide or see the technical calculation.

Model reading — citable summary

The Open Model gives Paris SG a 65.3% chance of beating Lens at home in the Ligue 1 on 2027-02-28, with 22.7% for the draw and 12.0% for an away win. The single most likely score is 2–0 (12.6%), with average simulated goals of 2.01–0.77; the chance of both teams scoring is 47.6% and of three or more total goals 52.6%. Estimates come from an Elo → Dixon-Coles → Monte Carlo model, walk-forward backtested on 913 internationals (ranked probability score 0.175 vs 0.241 for random guessing) with a public prediction record.

Source: The Open Model (theopenmodel.com) · probabilities as of the latest daily build · data reusable under CC BY 4.0 with attribution.

Possible final scores

	0	1	2	3	4
0	7.4	3.5	1.8	0.5	0.1
1	11.2	10.8	3.7	0.9	0.2
2	12.6	9.6	3.7	0.9	0.2
3	8.4	6.5	2.5	0.6	0.1
4	4.3	3.3	1.2	0.3	0.1
5+	2.5	1.9	0.7	0.2	0.0

Home-team goals run down the left; away-team goals run across the top. Each cell is that score's estimated chance.

Most likely scores

2–0 12.6%1–0 11.2%1–1 10.8%2–1 9.6%3–0 8.4%0–0 7.4%

Other match possibilities

Both teams to score		47.6%
2 or more total goals		77.8%
3 or more total goals		52.6%
4 or more total goals		30.4%
Paris SG avoids defeat		88.0%
Lens avoids defeat		34.7%
Paris SG allows no goals		46.5%
Lens allows no goals		13.3%