Paris FC vs Toulouse prediction — 2027-01-16

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Ligue 1 · Regular Season - 16 · 2027-01-16 16:00 UTC · Stade Jean Bouin, Paris

Paris FCTeam strength 1629.3 · projected league finish #11

MOST LIKELY RESULT

Paris FC

single most likely score: 1–1 (13.5%)

ToulouseTeam strength 1652.3 · projected league finish #9

Paris FC wins 38.7%Draw — neither team wins 28.4%Toulouse wins 32.9%Average simulated goals 1.46–1.33

These three percentages add to 100%. They show what may happen, not what will happen.

Why does Paris FC have the highest number? Toulouse currently has the stronger recent-results rating. The calculation also allows for Paris FC playing at home. Across many simulated versions of this match, the average goal totals are 1.46for Paris FC and 1.33 for Toulouse. That makes Paris FC the highest of the three result estimates at 38.7%. For the full league season, Paris FC is projected to earn about 43points and Toulouse about 46. Read the beginner's guide or see the technical calculation.

Model reading — citable summary

The Open Model gives Paris FC a 38.7% chance of beating Toulouse at home in the Ligue 1 on 2027-01-16, with 28.4% for the draw and 32.9% for an away win. The single most likely score is 1–1 (13.5%), with average simulated goals of 1.46–1.33; the chance of both teams scoring is 57.9% and of three or more total goals 52.6%. Estimates come from an Elo → Dixon-Coles → Monte Carlo model, walk-forward backtested on 913 internationals (ranked probability score 0.175 vs 0.241 for random guessing) with a public prediction record.

Source: The Open Model (theopenmodel.com) · probabilities as of the latest daily build · data reusable under CC BY 4.0 with attribution.

Possible final scores

	0	1	2	3	4	5+
0	7.8	6.7	5.4	2.4	0.8	0.3
1	7.5	13.5	7.9	3.5	1.2	0.4
2	6.6	8.7	5.8	2.6	0.8	0.3
3	3.2	4.2	2.8	1.2	0.4	0.1
4	1.2	1.5	1.0	0.4	0.1	0.1
5+	0.4	0.6	0.4	0.2	0.1	0.0

Home-team goals run down the left; away-team goals run across the top. Each cell is that score's estimated chance.

Most likely scores

1–1 13.5%2–1 8.7%1–2 7.9%0–0 7.8%1–0 7.5%0–1 6.7%

Other match possibilities

Both teams to score		57.9%
2 or more total goals		78.1%
3 or more total goals		52.6%
4 or more total goals		30.4%
Paris FC avoids defeat		67.1%
Toulouse avoids defeat		61.3%
Paris FC allows no goals		26.5%
Toulouse allows no goals		23.3%