Paris FC vs Strasbourg prediction — 2026-09-19

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Ligue 1 · Regular Season - 5 · 2026-09-19 15:00 UTC · Stade Jean Bouin, Paris

Paris FCTeam strength 1629.3 · projected league finish #11

MOST LIKELY RESULT

Strasbourg

single most likely score: 1–1 (13.5%)

StrasbourgTeam strength 1710.8 · projected league finish #8

Paris FC wins 32.1%Draw — neither team wins 28.4%Strasbourg wins 39.5%Average simulated goals 1.31–1.47

These three percentages add to 100%. They show what may happen, not what will happen.

Why does Strasbourg have the highest number? Strasbourg currently has the stronger recent-results rating. The calculation also allows for Paris FC playing at home. Across many simulated versions of this match, the average goal totals are 1.31for Paris FC and 1.47 for Strasbourg. That makes Strasbourg the highest of the three result estimates at 39.5%. For the full league season, Paris FC is projected to earn about 43points and Strasbourg about 52. Read the beginner's guide or see the technical calculation.

Model reading — citable summary

The Open Model gives Paris FC a 32.1% chance of beating Strasbourg at home in the Ligue 1 on 2026-09-19, with 28.4% for the draw and 39.5% for an away win. The single most likely score is 1–1 (13.5%), with average simulated goals of 1.31–1.47; the chance of both teams scoring is 57.8% and of three or more total goals 52.6%. Estimates come from an Elo → Dixon-Coles → Monte Carlo model, walk-forward backtested on 913 internationals (ranked probability score 0.175 vs 0.241 for random guessing) with a public prediction record.

Source: The Open Model (theopenmodel.com) · probabilities as of the latest daily build · data reusable under CC BY 4.0 with attribution.

Possible final scores

	0	1	2	3	4	5+
0	7.7	7.6	6.7	3.3	1.2	0.5
1	6.6	13.5	8.8	4.3	1.6	0.6
2	5.3	7.8	5.8	2.8	1.0	0.4
3	2.3	3.4	2.5	1.2	0.5	0.2
4	0.8	1.1	0.8	0.4	0.1	0.1
5+	0.3	0.4	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0

Home-team goals run down the left; away-team goals run across the top. Each cell is that score's estimated chance.

Most likely scores

1–1 13.5%1–2 8.8%2–1 7.8%0–0 7.7%0–1 7.6%0–2 6.7%

Other match possibilities

Both teams to score		57.8%
2 or more total goals		78.1%
3 or more total goals		52.6%
4 or more total goals		30.4%
Paris FC avoids defeat		60.5%
Strasbourg avoids defeat		67.9%
Paris FC allows no goals		22.9%
Strasbourg allows no goals		27.0%