Paris FC vs Le Mans prediction — 2026-12-05

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Ligue 1 · Regular Season - 13 · 2026-12-05 16:00 UTC · Stade Jean Bouin, Paris

Paris FCTeam strength 1629.3 · projected league finish #11

MOST LIKELY RESULT

Paris FC

single most likely score: 1–1 (12.0%)

Le MansTeam strength 1492.4 · projected league finish #18

Paris FC wins 57.8%Draw — neither team wins 25.2%Le Mans wins 17.0%Average simulated goals 1.85–0.93

These three percentages add to 100%. They show what may happen, not what will happen.

Why does Paris FC have the highest number? Paris FC currently has the stronger recent-results rating. The calculation also allows for Paris FC playing at home. Across many simulated versions of this match, the average goal totals are 1.85for Paris FC and 0.93 for Le Mans. That makes Paris FC the highest of the three result estimates at 57.8%. For the full league season, Paris FC is projected to earn about 43points and Le Mans about 28. Read the beginner's guide or see the technical calculation.

Model reading — citable summary

The Open Model gives Paris FC a 57.8% chance of beating Le Mans at home in the Ligue 1 on 2026-12-05, with 25.2% for the draw and 17.0% for an away win. The single most likely score is 1–1 (12.0%), with average simulated goals of 1.85–0.93; the chance of both teams scoring is 52.3% and of three or more total goals 52.6%. Estimates come from an Elo → Dixon-Coles → Monte Carlo model, walk-forward backtested on 913 internationals (ranked probability score 0.175 vs 0.241 for random guessing) with a public prediction record.

Source: The Open Model (theopenmodel.com) · probabilities as of the latest daily build · data reusable under CC BY 4.0 with attribution.

Possible final scores

	0	1	2	3	4	5+
0	7.6	4.4	2.7	0.8	0.2	0.0
1	10.1	12.0	4.9	1.5	0.4	0.1
2	10.7	9.9	4.6	1.4	0.3	0.1
3	6.6	6.1	2.8	0.9	0.2	0.0
4	3.1	2.8	1.3	0.4	0.1	0.0
5+	1.6	1.5	0.7	0.2	0.0	0.0

Home-team goals run down the left; away-team goals run across the top. Each cell is that score's estimated chance.

Most likely scores

1–1 12.0%2–0 10.7%1–0 10.1%2–1 9.9%0–0 7.6%3–0 6.6%

Other match possibilities

Both teams to score		52.3%
2 or more total goals		78.0%
3 or more total goals		52.6%
4 or more total goals		30.4%
Paris FC avoids defeat		83.0%
Le Mans avoids defeat		42.2%
Paris FC allows no goals		39.6%
Le Mans allows no goals		15.7%