Paderborn vs Hoffenheim prediction — 2026-09-19

Home › Predictions › Paderborn vs Hoffenheim

Bundesliga · Regular Season - 4 · 2026-09-19 13:30 UTC · Home Deluxe Arena, Paderborn

PaderbornTeam strength 1525.4 · projected league finish #16

MOST LIKELY RESULT

Hoffenheim

single most likely score: 1–1 (12.8%)

HoffenheimTeam strength 1700.4 · projected league finish #7

Paderborn wins 22.4%Draw — neither team wins 26.9%Hoffenheim wins 50.7%Average simulated goals 1.08–1.71

These three percentages add to 100%. They show what may happen, not what will happen.

Why does Hoffenheim have the highest number? Hoffenheim currently has the stronger recent-results rating. The calculation also allows for Paderborn playing at home. Across many simulated versions of this match, the average goal totals are 1.08for Paderborn and 1.71 for Hoffenheim. That makes Hoffenheim the highest of the three result estimates at 50.7%. For the full league season, Paderborn is projected to earn about 30points and Hoffenheim about 50. Read the beginner's guide or see the technical calculation.

Model reading — citable summary

The Open Model gives Paderborn a 22.4% chance of beating Hoffenheim at home in the Bundesliga on 2026-09-19, with 26.9% for the draw and 50.7% for an away win. The single most likely score is 1–1 (12.8%), with average simulated goals of 1.08–1.71; the chance of both teams scoring is 55.4% and of three or more total goals 52.6%. Estimates come from an Elo → Dixon-Coles → Monte Carlo model, walk-forward backtested on 913 internationals (ranked probability score 0.175 vs 0.241 for random guessing) with a public prediction record.

Source: The Open Model (theopenmodel.com) · probabilities as of the latest daily build · data reusable under CC BY 4.0 with attribution.

Possible final scores

	0	1	2	3	4	5+
0	7.7	9.1	9.0	5.1	2.2	1.0
1	5.2	12.8	9.7	5.5	2.4	1.1
2	3.6	6.1	5.2	3.0	1.3	0.6
3	1.3	2.2	1.9	1.1	0.5	0.2
4	0.3	0.6	0.5	0.3	0.1	0.1
5+	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0

Home-team goals run down the left; away-team goals run across the top. Each cell is that score's estimated chance.

Most likely scores

1–1 12.8%1–2 9.7%0–1 9.1%0–2 9.0%0–0 7.7%2–1 6.1%

Other match possibilities

Both teams to score		55.4%
2 or more total goals		78.0%
3 or more total goals		52.6%
4 or more total goals		30.4%
Paderborn avoids defeat		49.3%
Hoffenheim avoids defeat		77.6%
Paderborn allows no goals		18.2%
Hoffenheim allows no goals		34.1%