Osasuna vs Rayo Vallecano prediction — 2026-09-20

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La Liga · Regular Season - 7 · 2026-09-20 15:00 UTC · Estadio El Sadar, Pamplona

OsasunaTeam strength 1650.3 · projected league finish #12

MOST LIKELY RESULT

Rayo Vallecano

single most likely score: 1–1 (13.5%)

Rayo VallecanoTeam strength 1707.3 · projected league finish #6

Osasuna wins 34.8%Draw — neither team wins 28.5%Rayo Vallecano wins 36.7%Average simulated goals 1.37–1.41

These three percentages add to 100%. They show what may happen, not what will happen.

Why does Rayo Vallecano have the highest number? Rayo Vallecano currently has the stronger recent-results rating. The calculation also allows for Osasuna playing at home. Across many simulated versions of this match, the average goal totals are 1.37for Osasuna and 1.41 for Rayo Vallecano. That makes Rayo Vallecano the highest of the three result estimates at 36.7%. For the full league season, Osasuna is projected to earn about 47points and Rayo Vallecano about 55. Read the beginner's guide or see the technical calculation.

Model reading — citable summary

The Open Model gives Osasuna a 34.8% chance of beating Rayo Vallecano at home in the La Liga on 2026-09-20, with 28.5% for the draw and 36.7% for an away win. The single most likely score is 1–1 (13.5%), with average simulated goals of 1.37–1.41; the chance of both teams scoring is 58.0% and of three or more total goals 52.6%. Estimates come from an Elo → Dixon-Coles → Monte Carlo model, walk-forward backtested on 913 internationals (ranked probability score 0.175 vs 0.241 for random guessing) with a public prediction record.

Source: The Open Model (theopenmodel.com) · probabilities as of the latest daily build · data reusable under CC BY 4.0 with attribution.

Possible final scores

	0	1	2	3	4	5+
0	7.8	7.2	6.2	2.9	1.0	0.4
1	6.9	13.5	8.5	4.0	1.4	0.5
2	5.8	8.2	5.8	2.7	1.0	0.4
3	2.7	3.7	2.6	1.2	0.4	0.2
4	0.9	1.3	0.9	0.4	0.2	0.1
5+	0.3	0.5	0.3	0.1	0.1	0.0

Home-team goals run down the left; away-team goals run across the top. Each cell is that score's estimated chance.

Most likely scores

1–1 13.5%1–2 8.5%2–1 8.2%0–0 7.8%0–1 7.2%1–0 6.9%

Other match possibilities

Both teams to score		58.0%
2 or more total goals		78.1%
3 or more total goals		52.6%
4 or more total goals		30.4%
Osasuna avoids defeat		63.3%
Rayo Vallecano avoids defeat		65.2%
Osasuna allows no goals		24.4%
Rayo Vallecano allows no goals		25.4%