Home › Predictions › Osasuna vs Malaga
La Liga · Regular Season - 13 · 2026-11-22 16:00 UTC · Estadio El Sadar, Pamplona
Osasuna
MalagaThese three percentages add to 100%. They show what may happen, not what will happen.
Why does Osasuna have the highest number? Osasuna currently has the stronger recent-results rating. The calculation also allows for Osasuna playing at home. Across many simulated versions of this match, the average goal totals are 1.72for Osasuna and 1.06 for Malaga. That makes Osasuna the highest of the three result estimates at 51.2%. For the full league season, Osasuna is projected to earn about 47points and Malaga about 37. Read the beginner's guide or see the technical calculation.
The Open Model gives Osasuna a 51.2% chance of beating Malaga at home in the La Liga on 2026-11-22, with 26.8% for the draw and 22.0% for an away win. The single most likely score is 1–1 (12.8%), with average simulated goals of 1.72–1.06; the chance of both teams scoring is 55.2% and of three or more total goals 52.6%. Estimates come from an Elo → Dixon-Coles → Monte Carlo model, walk-forward backtested on 913 internationals (ranked probability score 0.175 vs 0.241 for random guessing) with a public prediction record.
Source: The Open Model (theopenmodel.com) · probabilities as of the latest daily build · data reusable under CC BY 4.0 with attribution.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 5.1 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.8 | 6.0 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.7 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 5.6 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Home-team goals run down the left; away-team goals run across the top. Each cell is that score's estimated chance.
| Both teams to score | 55.2% | |
| 2 or more total goals | 78.0% | |
| 3 or more total goals | 52.6% | |
| 4 or more total goals | 30.4% | |
| Osasuna avoids defeat | 78.0% | |
| Malaga avoids defeat | 48.8% | |
| Osasuna allows no goals | 34.5% | |
| Malaga allows no goals | 18.0% |
Forwards to watch
2026–27 squads · API-Football
