Newcastle vs Ipswich prediction — 2027-04-24

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Premier League · Regular Season - 33 · 2027-04-24 14:00 UTC

NewcastleTeam strength 1837.5 · projected league finish #8

MOST LIKELY RESULT

Newcastle

single most likely score: 2–0 (12.5%)

IpswichTeam strength 1640 · projected league finish #19

Newcastle wins 64.9%Draw — neither team wins 22.8%Ipswich wins 12.3%Average simulated goals 2.01–0.78

These three percentages add to 100%. They show what may happen, not what will happen.

Why does Newcastle have the highest number? Newcastle currently has the stronger recent-results rating. The calculation also allows for Newcastle playing at home. Across many simulated versions of this match, the average goal totals are 2.01for Newcastle and 0.78 for Ipswich. That makes Newcastle the highest of the three result estimates at 64.9%. For the full league season, Newcastle is projected to earn about 55points and Ipswich about 30. Read the beginner's guide or see the technical calculation.

Model reading — citable summary

The Open Model gives Newcastle a 64.9% chance of beating Ipswich at home in the Premier League on 2027-04-24, with 22.8% for the draw and 12.3% for an away win. The single most likely score is 2–0 (12.5%), with average simulated goals of 2.01–0.78; the chance of both teams scoring is 47.9% and of three or more total goals 52.6%. Estimates come from an Elo → Dixon-Coles → Monte Carlo model, walk-forward backtested on 913 internationals (ranked probability score 0.175 vs 0.241 for random guessing) with a public prediction record.

Source: The Open Model (theopenmodel.com) · probabilities as of the latest daily build · data reusable under CC BY 4.0 with attribution.

Possible final scores

	0	1	2	3	4
0	7.5	3.6	1.9	0.5	0.1
1	11.2	10.9	3.7	1.0	0.2
2	12.5	9.7	3.7	1.0	0.2
3	8.3	6.5	2.5	0.6	0.1
4	4.2	3.2	1.3	0.3	0.1
5+	2.4	1.9	0.7	0.2	0.0

Home-team goals run down the left; away-team goals run across the top. Each cell is that score's estimated chance.

Most likely scores

2–0 12.5%1–0 11.2%1–1 10.9%2–1 9.7%3–0 8.3%0–0 7.5%

Other match possibilities

Both teams to score		47.9%
2 or more total goals		77.8%
3 or more total goals		52.6%
4 or more total goals		30.4%
Newcastle avoids defeat		87.7%
Ipswich avoids defeat		35.1%
Newcastle allows no goals		46.1%
Ipswich allows no goals		13.5%