Newcastle vs Bournemouth prediction — 2026-09-05

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Premier League · Regular Season - 3 · 2026-09-05 11:30 UTC

NewcastleTeam strength 1837.5 · projected league finish #8

MOST LIKELY RESULT

Newcastle

single most likely score: 1–1 (13.5%)

BournemouthTeam strength 1872 · projected league finish #6

Newcastle wins 37.4%Draw — neither team wins 28.5%Bournemouth wins 34.1%Average simulated goals 1.43–1.35

These three percentages add to 100%. They show what may happen, not what will happen.

Why does Newcastle have the highest number? Bournemouth currently has the stronger recent-results rating. The calculation also allows for Newcastle playing at home. Across many simulated versions of this match, the average goal totals are 1.43for Newcastle and 1.35 for Bournemouth. That makes Newcastle the highest of the three result estimates at 37.4%. For the full league season, Newcastle is projected to earn about 55points and Bournemouth about 59. Read the beginner's guide or see the technical calculation.

Model reading — citable summary

The Open Model gives Newcastle a 37.4% chance of beating Bournemouth at home in the Premier League on 2026-09-05, with 28.5% for the draw and 34.1% for an away win. The single most likely score is 1–1 (13.5%), with average simulated goals of 1.43–1.35; the chance of both teams scoring is 57.9% and of three or more total goals 52.6%. Estimates come from an Elo → Dixon-Coles → Monte Carlo model, walk-forward backtested on 913 internationals (ranked probability score 0.175 vs 0.241 for random guessing) with a public prediction record.

Source: The Open Model (theopenmodel.com) · probabilities as of the latest daily build · data reusable under CC BY 4.0 with attribution.

Possible final scores

	0	1	2	3	4	5+
0	7.8	6.8	5.7	2.6	0.9	0.3
1	7.3	13.5	8.1	3.7	1.2	0.4
2	6.3	8.5	5.8	2.6	0.9	0.3
3	3.0	4.1	2.8	1.2	0.4	0.1
4	1.1	1.4	1.0	0.4	0.2	0.1
5+	0.4	0.5	0.4	0.2	0.1	0.0

Home-team goals run down the left; away-team goals run across the top. Each cell is that score's estimated chance.

Most likely scores

1–1 13.5%2–1 8.5%1–2 8.1%0–0 7.8%1–0 7.3%0–1 6.8%

Other match possibilities

Both teams to score		57.9%
2 or more total goals		78.1%
3 or more total goals		52.6%
4 or more total goals		30.4%
Newcastle avoids defeat		65.9%
Bournemouth avoids defeat		62.6%
Newcastle allows no goals		25.8%
Bournemouth allows no goals		24.0%