Newcastle vs Aston Villa prediction — 2026-10-17

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Premier League · Regular Season - 7 · 2026-10-17 14:00 UTC

NewcastleTeam strength 1837.5 · projected league finish #8

MOST LIKELY RESULT

Aston Villa

single most likely score: 1–1 (13.5%)

Aston VillaTeam strength 1921 · projected league finish #3

Newcastle wins 31.9%Draw — neither team wins 28.4%Aston Villa wins 39.8%Average simulated goals 1.30–1.48

These three percentages add to 100%. They show what may happen, not what will happen.

Why does Aston Villa have the highest number? Aston Villa currently has the stronger recent-results rating. The calculation also allows for Newcastle playing at home. Across many simulated versions of this match, the average goal totals are 1.30for Newcastle and 1.48 for Aston Villa. That makes Aston Villa the highest of the three result estimates at 39.8%. For the full league season, Newcastle is projected to earn about 55points and Aston Villa about 66. Read the beginner's guide or see the technical calculation.

Model reading — citable summary

The Open Model gives Newcastle a 31.9% chance of beating Aston Villa at home in the Premier League on 2026-10-17, with 28.4% for the draw and 39.8% for an away win. The single most likely score is 1–1 (13.5%), with average simulated goals of 1.30–1.48; the chance of both teams scoring is 57.8% and of three or more total goals 52.6%. Estimates come from an Elo → Dixon-Coles → Monte Carlo model, walk-forward backtested on 913 internationals (ranked probability score 0.175 vs 0.241 for random guessing) with a public prediction record.

Source: The Open Model (theopenmodel.com) · probabilities as of the latest daily build · data reusable under CC BY 4.0 with attribution.

Possible final scores

	0	1	2	3	4	5+
0	7.7	7.6	6.8	3.3	1.2	0.5
1	6.5	13.5	8.8	4.3	1.6	0.6
2	5.3	7.8	5.7	2.8	1.0	0.4
3	2.3	3.4	2.5	1.2	0.5	0.2
4	0.7	1.1	0.8	0.4	0.1	0.1
5+	0.2	0.4	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0

Home-team goals run down the left; away-team goals run across the top. Each cell is that score's estimated chance.

Most likely scores

1–1 13.5%1–2 8.8%2–1 7.8%0–0 7.7%0–1 7.6%0–2 6.8%

Other match possibilities

Both teams to score		57.8%
2 or more total goals		78.1%
3 or more total goals		52.6%
4 or more total goals		30.4%
Newcastle avoids defeat		60.2%
Aston Villa avoids defeat		68.1%
Newcastle allows no goals		22.8%
Aston Villa allows no goals		27.2%