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Serie A · Regular Season - 15 · 2026-12-13 17:30 UTC · Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, Naples
Napoli
MilanThese three percentages add to 100%. They show what may happen, not what will happen.
Why does Napoli have the highest number? Napoli currently has the stronger recent-results rating. The calculation also allows for Napoli playing at home. Across many simulated versions of this match, the average goal totals are 1.59for Napoli and 1.19 for Milan. That makes Napoli the highest of the three result estimates at 45.0%. For the full league season, Napoli is projected to earn about 66points and Milan about 62. Read the beginner's guide or see the technical calculation.
The Open Model gives Napoli a 45.0% chance of beating Milan at home in the Serie A on 2026-12-13, with 27.9% for the draw and 27.1% for an away win. The single most likely score is 1–1 (13.3%), with average simulated goals of 1.59–1.19; the chance of both teams scoring is 57.0% and of three or more total goals 52.6%. Estimates come from an Elo → Dixon-Coles → Monte Carlo model, walk-forward backtested on 913 internationals (ranked probability score 0.175 vs 0.241 for random guessing) with a public prediction record.
Source: The Open Model (theopenmodel.com) · probabilities as of the latest daily build · data reusable under CC BY 4.0 with attribution.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 5.9 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 13.3 | 7.0 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.3 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.9 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Home-team goals run down the left; away-team goals run across the top. Each cell is that score's estimated chance.
| Both teams to score | 57.0% | |
| 2 or more total goals | 78.1% | |
| 3 or more total goals | 52.6% | |
| 4 or more total goals | 30.4% | |
| Napoli avoids defeat | 72.9% | |
| Milan avoids defeat | 55.0% | |
| Napoli allows no goals | 30.3% | |
| Milan allows no goals | 20.4% |
Forwards to watch
2026–27 squads · API-Football
