Napoli vs Fiorentina prediction — 2027-01-17

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Serie A · Regular Season - 20 · 2027-01-17 17:30 UTC · Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, Naples

NapoliTeam strength 1780.3 · projected league finish #3

MOST LIKELY RESULT

Napoli

single most likely score: 1–1 (12.4%)

FiorentinaTeam strength 1670.2 · projected league finish #10

Napoli wins 54.6%Draw — neither team wins 26.0%Fiorentina wins 19.4%Average simulated goals 1.79–0.99

These three percentages add to 100%. They show what may happen, not what will happen.

Why does Napoli have the highest number? Napoli currently has the stronger recent-results rating. The calculation also allows for Napoli playing at home. Across many simulated versions of this match, the average goal totals are 1.79for Napoli and 0.99 for Fiorentina. That makes Napoli the highest of the three result estimates at 54.6%. For the full league season, Napoli is projected to earn about 66points and Fiorentina about 51. Read the beginner's guide or see the technical calculation.

Model reading — citable summary

The Open Model gives Napoli a 54.6% chance of beating Fiorentina at home in the Serie A on 2027-01-17, with 26.0% for the draw and 19.4% for an away win. The single most likely score is 1–1 (12.4%), with average simulated goals of 1.79–0.99; the chance of both teams scoring is 53.9% and of three or more total goals 52.6%. Estimates come from an Elo → Dixon-Coles → Monte Carlo model, walk-forward backtested on 913 internationals (ranked probability score 0.175 vs 0.241 for random guessing) with a public prediction record.

Source: The Open Model (theopenmodel.com) · probabilities as of the latest daily build · data reusable under CC BY 4.0 with attribution.

Possible final scores

	0	1	2	3	4	5+
0	7.6	4.7	3.1	1.0	0.3	0.1
1	9.6	12.4	5.5	1.8	0.4	0.1
2	9.9	9.8	4.9	1.6	0.4	0.1
3	5.9	5.9	2.9	1.0	0.2	0.1
4	2.6	2.6	1.3	0.4	0.1	0.0
5+	1.3	1.3	0.6	0.2	0.1	0.0

Home-team goals run down the left; away-team goals run across the top. Each cell is that score's estimated chance.

Most likely scores

1–1 12.4%2–0 9.9%2–1 9.8%1–0 9.6%0–0 7.6%3–0 5.9%

Other match possibilities

Both teams to score		53.9%
2 or more total goals		78.0%
3 or more total goals		52.6%
4 or more total goals		30.4%
Napoli avoids defeat		80.6%
Fiorentina avoids defeat		45.4%
Napoli allows no goals		37.0%
Fiorentina allows no goals		16.7%