Monza vs Roma prediction — 2027-01-31

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Serie A · Regular Season - 22 · 2027-01-31 17:30 UTC

MonzaTeam strength 1544 · projected league finish #20

MOST LIKELY RESULT

Roma

single most likely score: 1–1 (11.8%)

RomaTeam strength 1793.5 · projected league finish #2

Monza wins 15.8%Draw — neither team wins 24.6%Roma wins 59.6%Average simulated goals 0.89–1.89

These three percentages add to 100%. They show what may happen, not what will happen.

Why does Roma have the highest number? Roma currently has the stronger recent-results rating. The calculation also allows for Monza playing at home. Across many simulated versions of this match, the average goal totals are 0.89for Monza and 1.89 for Roma. That makes Roma the highest of the three result estimates at 59.6%. For the full league season, Monza is projected to earn about 35points and Roma about 68. Read the beginner's guide or see the technical calculation.

Model reading — citable summary

The Open Model gives Monza a 15.8% chance of beating Roma at home in the Serie A on 2027-01-31, with 24.6% for the draw and 59.6% for an away win. The single most likely score is 1–1 (11.8%), with average simulated goals of 0.89–1.89; the chance of both teams scoring is 51.4% and of three or more total goals 52.6%. Estimates come from an Elo → Dixon-Coles → Monte Carlo model, walk-forward backtested on 913 internationals (ranked probability score 0.175 vs 0.241 for random guessing) with a public prediction record.

Source: The Open Model (theopenmodel.com) · probabilities as of the latest daily build · data reusable under CC BY 4.0 with attribution.

Possible final scores

	0	1	2	3	4	5+
0	7.6	10.4	11.1	7.0	3.3	1.8
1	4.2	11.8	9.9	6.2	2.9	1.6
2	2.4	4.6	4.4	2.8	1.3	0.7
3	0.7	1.4	1.3	0.8	0.4	0.2
4	0.2	0.3	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.0
5+	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0

Home-team goals run down the left; away-team goals run across the top. Each cell is that score's estimated chance.

Most likely scores

1–1 11.8%0–2 11.1%0–1 10.4%1–2 9.9%0–0 7.6%0–3 7.0%

Other match possibilities

Both teams to score		51.4%
2 or more total goals		77.9%
3 or more total goals		52.6%
4 or more total goals		30.4%
Monza avoids defeat		40.4%
Roma avoids defeat		84.2%
Monza allows no goals		15.1%
Roma allows no goals		41.1%