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Serie A · Regular Season - 36 · 2027-05-16 16:30 UTC
Milan
RomaThese three percentages add to 100%. They show what may happen, not what will happen.
Why does Milan have the highest number? Roma currently has the stronger recent-results rating. The calculation also allows for Milan playing at home. Across many simulated versions of this match, the average goal totals are 1.40for Milan and 1.38 for Roma. That makes Milan the highest of the three result estimates at 36.4%. For the full league season, Milan is projected to earn about 62points and Roma about 68. Read the beginner's guide or see the technical calculation.
The Open Model gives Milan a 36.4% chance of beating Roma at home in the Serie A on 2027-05-16, with 28.5% for the draw and 35.2% for an away win. The single most likely score is 1–1 (13.5%), with average simulated goals of 1.40–1.38; the chance of both teams scoring is 58.0% and of three or more total goals 52.6%. Estimates come from an Elo → Dixon-Coles → Monte Carlo model, walk-forward backtested on 913 internationals (ranked probability score 0.175 vs 0.241 for random guessing) with a public prediction record.
Source: The Open Model (theopenmodel.com) · probabilities as of the latest daily build · data reusable under CC BY 4.0 with attribution.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 7.0 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 13.5 | 8.3 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.4 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.9 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Home-team goals run down the left; away-team goals run across the top. Each cell is that score's estimated chance.
| Both teams to score | 58.0% | |
| 2 or more total goals | 78.1% | |
| 3 or more total goals | 52.6% | |
| 4 or more total goals | 30.4% | |
| Milan avoids defeat | 64.8% | |
| Roma avoids defeat | 63.6% | |
| Milan allows no goals | 25.2% | |
| Roma allows no goals | 24.6% |
Forwards to watch
2026–27 squads · API-Football
