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Serie A · Regular Season - 32 · 2027-04-18 16:30 UTC
Milan
NapoliThese three percentages add to 100%. They show what may happen, not what will happen.
Why does Milan have the highest number? Napoli currently has the stronger recent-results rating. The calculation also allows for Milan playing at home. Across many simulated versions of this match, the average goal totals are 1.44for Milan and 1.34 for Napoli. That makes Milan the highest of the three result estimates at 37.9%. For the full league season, Milan is projected to earn about 62points and Napoli about 66. Read the beginner's guide or see the technical calculation.
The Open Model gives Milan a 37.9% chance of beating Napoli at home in the Serie A on 2027-04-18, with 28.5% for the draw and 33.7% for an away win. The single most likely score is 1–1 (13.5%), with average simulated goals of 1.44–1.34; the chance of both teams scoring is 57.9% and of three or more total goals 52.6%. Estimates come from an Elo → Dixon-Coles → Monte Carlo model, walk-forward backtested on 913 internationals (ranked probability score 0.175 vs 0.241 for random guessing) with a public prediction record.
Source: The Open Model (theopenmodel.com) · probabilities as of the latest daily build · data reusable under CC BY 4.0 with attribution.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 6.8 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 13.5 | 8.0 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.6 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.1 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Home-team goals run down the left; away-team goals run across the top. Each cell is that score's estimated chance.
| Both teams to score | 57.9% | |
| 2 or more total goals | 78.1% | |
| 3 or more total goals | 52.6% | |
| 4 or more total goals | 30.4% | |
| Milan avoids defeat | 66.3% | |
| Napoli avoids defeat | 62.1% | |
| Milan allows no goals | 26.1% | |
| Napoli allows no goals | 23.8% |
Forwards to watch
2026–27 squads · API-Football
