Milan vs Genoa prediction — 2027-02-21

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Serie A · Regular Season - 25 · 2027-02-21 17:30 UTC

MilanTeam strength 1750 · projected league finish #7

MOST LIKELY RESULT

Milan

single most likely score: 1–1 (12.1%)

GenoaTeam strength 1618.2 · projected league finish #14

Milan wins 57.2%Draw — neither team wins 25.3%Genoa wins 17.5%Average simulated goals 1.84–0.94

These three percentages add to 100%. They show what may happen, not what will happen.

Why does Milan have the highest number? Milan currently has the stronger recent-results rating. The calculation also allows for Milan playing at home. Across many simulated versions of this match, the average goal totals are 1.84for Milan and 0.94 for Genoa. That makes Milan the highest of the three result estimates at 57.2%. For the full league season, Milan is projected to earn about 62points and Genoa about 45. Read the beginner's guide or see the technical calculation.

Model reading — citable summary

The Open Model gives Milan a 57.2% chance of beating Genoa at home in the Serie A on 2027-02-21, with 25.3% for the draw and 17.5% for an away win. The single most likely score is 1–1 (12.1%), with average simulated goals of 1.84–0.94; the chance of both teams scoring is 52.6% and of three or more total goals 52.6%. Estimates come from an Elo → Dixon-Coles → Monte Carlo model, walk-forward backtested on 913 internationals (ranked probability score 0.175 vs 0.241 for random guessing) with a public prediction record.

Source: The Open Model (theopenmodel.com) · probabilities as of the latest daily build · data reusable under CC BY 4.0 with attribution.

Possible final scores

	0	1	2	3	4	5+
0	7.6	4.4	2.7	0.9	0.2	0.0
1	10.0	12.1	5.0	1.6	0.4	0.1
2	10.5	9.9	4.6	1.5	0.3	0.1
3	6.5	6.1	2.8	0.9	0.2	0.0
4	3.0	2.8	1.3	0.4	0.1	0.0
5+	1.5	1.4	0.7	0.2	0.0	0.0

Home-team goals run down the left; away-team goals run across the top. Each cell is that score's estimated chance.

Most likely scores

1–1 12.1%2–0 10.5%1–0 10.0%2–1 9.9%0–0 7.6%3–0 6.5%

Other match possibilities

Both teams to score		52.6%
2 or more total goals		78.0%
3 or more total goals		52.6%
4 or more total goals		30.4%
Milan avoids defeat		82.5%
Genoa avoids defeat		42.8%
Milan allows no goals		39.1%
Genoa allows no goals		15.9%