Milan vs Fiorentina prediction — 2027-01-06

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Serie A · Regular Season - 18 · 2027-01-06 17:30 UTC

MilanTeam strength 1750 · projected league finish #7

MOST LIKELY RESULT

Milan

single most likely score: 1–1 (12.8%)

FiorentinaTeam strength 1670.2 · projected league finish #10

Milan wins 50.9%Draw — neither team wins 26.9%Fiorentina wins 22.2%Average simulated goals 1.71–1.07

These three percentages add to 100%. They show what may happen, not what will happen.

Why does Milan have the highest number? Milan currently has the stronger recent-results rating. The calculation also allows for Milan playing at home. Across many simulated versions of this match, the average goal totals are 1.71for Milan and 1.07 for Fiorentina. That makes Milan the highest of the three result estimates at 50.9%. For the full league season, Milan is projected to earn about 62points and Fiorentina about 51. Read the beginner's guide or see the technical calculation.

Model reading — citable summary

The Open Model gives Milan a 50.9% chance of beating Fiorentina at home in the Serie A on 2027-01-06, with 26.9% for the draw and 22.2% for an away win. The single most likely score is 1–1 (12.8%), with average simulated goals of 1.71–1.07; the chance of both teams scoring is 55.3% and of three or more total goals 52.6%. Estimates come from an Elo → Dixon-Coles → Monte Carlo model, walk-forward backtested on 913 internationals (ranked probability score 0.175 vs 0.241 for random guessing) with a public prediction record.

Source: The Open Model (theopenmodel.com) · probabilities as of the latest daily build · data reusable under CC BY 4.0 with attribution.

Possible final scores

	0	1	2	3	4	5+
0	7.7	5.2	3.5	1.3	0.3	0.1
1	9.1	12.8	6.1	2.2	0.6	0.1
2	9.1	9.7	5.2	1.9	0.5	0.1
3	5.2	5.5	3.0	1.1	0.3	0.1
4	2.2	2.4	1.3	0.5	0.1	0.0
5+	1.0	1.1	0.6	0.2	0.1	0.0

Home-team goals run down the left; away-team goals run across the top. Each cell is that score's estimated chance.

Most likely scores

1–1 12.8%2–1 9.7%1–0 9.1%2–0 9.1%0–0 7.7%1–2 6.1%

Other match possibilities

Both teams to score		55.3%
2 or more total goals		78.0%
3 or more total goals		52.6%
4 or more total goals		30.4%
Milan avoids defeat		77.8%
Fiorentina avoids defeat		49.1%
Milan allows no goals		34.3%
Fiorentina allows no goals		18.1%