Milan vs Como prediction — 2026-12-20

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Serie A · Regular Season - 16 · 2026-12-20 17:30 UTC

MilanTeam strength 1750 · projected league finish #7

MOST LIKELY RESULT

Milan

single most likely score: 1–1 (13.5%)

ComoTeam strength 1760 · projected league finish #6

Milan wins 40.2%Draw — neither team wins 28.3%Como wins 31.4%Average simulated goals 1.49–1.29

These three percentages add to 100%. They show what may happen, not what will happen.

Why does Milan have the highest number? Como currently has the stronger recent-results rating. The calculation also allows for Milan playing at home. Across many simulated versions of this match, the average goal totals are 1.49for Milan and 1.29 for Como. That makes Milan the highest of the three result estimates at 40.2%. For the full league season, Milan is projected to earn about 62points and Como about 63. Read the beginner's guide or see the technical calculation.

Model reading — citable summary

The Open Model gives Milan a 40.2% chance of beating Como at home in the Serie A on 2026-12-20, with 28.3% for the draw and 31.4% for an away win. The single most likely score is 1–1 (13.5%), with average simulated goals of 1.49–1.29; the chance of both teams scoring is 57.7% and of three or more total goals 52.6%. Estimates come from an Elo → Dixon-Coles → Monte Carlo model, walk-forward backtested on 913 internationals (ranked probability score 0.175 vs 0.241 for random guessing) with a public prediction record.

Source: The Open Model (theopenmodel.com) · probabilities as of the latest daily build · data reusable under CC BY 4.0 with attribution.

Possible final scores

	0	1	2	3	4	5+
0	7.7	6.5	5.2	2.2	0.7	0.2
1	7.7	13.5	7.7	3.3	1.1	0.4
2	6.9	8.9	5.7	2.5	0.8	0.3
3	3.4	4.4	2.8	1.2	0.4	0.1
4	1.3	1.6	1.1	0.5	0.1	0.0
5+	0.5	0.6	0.4	0.2	0.1	0.0

Home-team goals run down the left; away-team goals run across the top. Each cell is that score's estimated chance.

Most likely scores

1–1 13.5%2–1 8.9%0–0 7.7%1–2 7.7%1–0 7.7%2–0 6.9%

Other match possibilities

Both teams to score		57.7%
2 or more total goals		78.1%
3 or more total goals		52.6%
4 or more total goals		30.4%
Milan avoids defeat		68.6%
Como avoids defeat		59.8%
Milan allows no goals		27.4%
Como allows no goals		22.6%