Home › Predictions › Marseille vs Paris SG
Ligue 1 · Regular Season - 5 · 2026-09-20 18:45 UTC
Marseille
Paris SGThese three percentages add to 100%. They show what may happen, not what will happen.
Why does Paris SG have the highest number? Paris SG currently has the stronger recent-results rating. The calculation also allows for Marseille playing at home. Across many simulated versions of this match, the average goal totals are 0.88for Marseille and 1.90 for Paris SG. That makes Paris SG the highest of the three result estimates at 59.8%. For the full league season, Marseille is projected to earn about 53points and Paris SG about 81. Read the beginner's guide or see the technical calculation.
The Open Model gives Marseille a 15.6% chance of beating Paris SG at home in the Ligue 1 on 2026-09-20, with 24.6% for the draw and 59.8% for an away win. The single most likely score is 1–1 (11.7%), with average simulated goals of 0.88–1.90; the chance of both teams scoring is 51.2% and of three or more total goals 52.6%. Estimates come from an Elo → Dixon-Coles → Monte Carlo model, walk-forward backtested on 913 internationals (ranked probability score 0.175 vs 0.241 for random guessing) with a public prediction record.
Source: The Open Model (theopenmodel.com) · probabilities as of the latest daily build · data reusable under CC BY 4.0 with attribution.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 10.4 | 11.1 | 7.0 | 3.3 | 1.8 |
| 1 | 4.1 | 11.7 | 9.9 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 1.6 |
| 2 | 2.4 | 4.6 | 4.4 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Home-team goals run down the left; away-team goals run across the top. Each cell is that score's estimated chance.
| Both teams to score | 51.2% | |
| 2 or more total goals | 77.9% | |
| 3 or more total goals | 52.6% | |
| 4 or more total goals | 30.4% | |
| Marseille avoids defeat | 40.2% | |
| Paris SG avoids defeat | 84.4% | |
| Marseille allows no goals | 15.0% | |
| Paris SG allows no goals | 41.3% |
Forwards to watch
2026–27 squads · API-Football
