Man United vs Coventry prediction — 2026-12-05

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Premier League · Regular Season - 14 · 2026-12-05 15:00 UTC · Old Trafford, Manchester

Man UnitedTeam strength 1915.3 · projected league finish #4

MOST LIKELY RESULT

Man United

single most likely score: 2–0 (14.3%)

CoventryTeam strength 1661.5 · projected league finish #18

Man United wins 71.3%Draw — neither team wins 20.2%Coventry wins 8.5%Average simulated goals 2.15–0.63

These three percentages add to 100%. They show what may happen, not what will happen.

Why does Man United have the highest number? Man United currently has the stronger recent-results rating. The calculation also allows for Man United playing at home. Across many simulated versions of this match, the average goal totals are 2.15for Man United and 0.63 for Coventry. That makes Man United the highest of the three result estimates at 71.3%. For the full league season, Man United is projected to earn about 65points and Coventry about 33. Read the beginner's guide or see the technical calculation.

Model reading — citable summary

The Open Model gives Man United a 71.3% chance of beating Coventry at home in the Premier League on 2026-12-05, with 20.2% for the draw and 8.5% for an away win. The single most likely score is 2–0 (14.3%), with average simulated goals of 2.15–0.63; the chance of both teams scoring is 42.6% and of three or more total goals 52.6%. Estimates come from an Elo → Dixon-Coles → Monte Carlo model, walk-forward backtested on 913 internationals (ranked probability score 0.175 vs 0.241 for random guessing) with a public prediction record.

Source: The Open Model (theopenmodel.com) · probabilities as of the latest daily build · data reusable under CC BY 4.0 with attribution.

Possible final scores

	0	1	2	3	4
0	7.3	2.8	1.2	0.3	0.0
1	12.2	9.5	2.7	0.6	0.1
2	14.3	9.1	2.9	0.6	0.1
3	10.2	6.5	2.1	0.4	0.1
4	5.5	3.5	1.1	0.2	0.0
5+	3.5	2.2	0.7	0.2	0.0

Home-team goals run down the left; away-team goals run across the top. Each cell is that score's estimated chance.

Most likely scores

2–0 14.3%1–0 12.2%3–0 10.2%1–1 9.5%2–1 9.1%0–0 7.3%

Other match possibilities

Both teams to score		42.6%
2 or more total goals		77.7%
3 or more total goals		52.6%
4 or more total goals		30.4%
Man United avoids defeat		91.5%
Coventry avoids defeat		28.7%
Man United allows no goals		53.0%
Coventry allows no goals		11.7%