Man United vs Arsenal prediction — 2027-02-27

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Premier League · Regular Season - 27 · 2027-02-27 15:00 UTC · Old Trafford, Manchester

Man UnitedTeam strength 1915.3 · projected league finish #4

MOST LIKELY RESULT

Arsenal

single most likely score: 1–1 (13.1%)

ArsenalTeam strength 2063.8 · projected league finish #1

Man United wins 25.0%Draw — neither team wins 27.5%Arsenal wins 47.5%Average simulated goals 1.14–1.64

These three percentages add to 100%. They show what may happen, not what will happen.

Why does Arsenal have the highest number? Arsenal currently has the stronger recent-results rating. The calculation also allows for Man United playing at home. Across many simulated versions of this match, the average goal totals are 1.14for Man United and 1.64 for Arsenal. That makes Arsenal the highest of the three result estimates at 47.5%. For the full league season, Man United is projected to earn about 65points and Arsenal about 83. Read the beginner's guide or see the technical calculation.

Model reading — citable summary

The Open Model gives Man United a 25.0% chance of beating Arsenal at home in the Premier League on 2027-02-27, with 27.5% for the draw and 47.5% for an away win. The single most likely score is 1–1 (13.1%), with average simulated goals of 1.14–1.64; the chance of both teams scoring is 56.4% and of three or more total goals 52.6%. Estimates come from an Elo → Dixon-Coles → Monte Carlo model, walk-forward backtested on 913 internationals (ranked probability score 0.175 vs 0.241 for random guessing) with a public prediction record.

Source: The Open Model (theopenmodel.com) · probabilities as of the latest daily build · data reusable under CC BY 4.0 with attribution.

Possible final scores

	0	1	2	3	4	5+
0	7.7	8.7	8.3	4.6	1.9	0.8
1	5.6	13.1	9.5	5.2	2.1	0.9
2	4.0	6.6	5.4	3.0	1.2	0.5
3	1.5	2.5	2.1	1.1	0.5	0.2
4	0.4	0.7	0.6	0.3	0.1	0.1
5+	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0

Home-team goals run down the left; away-team goals run across the top. Each cell is that score's estimated chance.

Most likely scores

1–1 13.1%1–2 9.5%0–1 8.7%0–2 8.3%0–0 7.7%2–1 6.6%

Other match possibilities

Both teams to score		56.4%
2 or more total goals		78.1%
3 or more total goals		52.6%
4 or more total goals		30.4%
Man United avoids defeat		52.5%
Arsenal avoids defeat		75.0%
Man United allows no goals		19.4%
Arsenal allows no goals		31.9%