Home › Predictions › Man City vs Tottenham
Premier League · Regular Season - 19 · 2027-01-02 15:00 UTC · Etihad Stadium, Manchester
Man City
TottenhamThese three percentages add to 100%. They show what may happen, not what will happen.
Why does Man City have the highest number? Man City currently has the stronger recent-results rating. The calculation also allows for Man City playing at home. Across many simulated versions of this match, the average goal totals are 2.00for Man City and 0.78 for Tottenham. That makes Man City the highest of the three result estimates at 64.5%. For the full league season, Man City is projected to earn about 72points and Tottenham about 47. Read the beginner's guide or see the technical calculation.
The Open Model gives Man City a 64.5% chance of beating Tottenham at home in the Premier League on 2027-01-02, with 23.0% for the draw and 12.6% for an away win. The single most likely score is 2–0 (12.4%), with average simulated goals of 2.00–0.78; the chance of both teams scoring is 48.3% and of three or more total goals 52.6%. Estimates come from an Elo → Dixon-Coles → Monte Carlo model, walk-forward backtested on 913 internationals (ranked probability score 0.175 vs 0.241 for random guessing) with a public prediction record.
Source: The Open Model (theopenmodel.com) · probabilities as of the latest daily build · data reusable under CC BY 4.0 with attribution.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 11.0 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 12.4 | 9.7 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 8.2 | 6.5 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 4.1 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 2.4 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Home-team goals run down the left; away-team goals run across the top. Each cell is that score's estimated chance.
| Both teams to score | 48.3% | |
| 2 or more total goals | 77.8% | |
| 3 or more total goals | 52.6% | |
| 4 or more total goals | 30.4% | |
| Man City avoids defeat | 87.4% | |
| Tottenham avoids defeat | 35.5% | |
| Man City allows no goals | 45.6% | |
| Tottenham allows no goals | 13.6% |
Forwards to watch
2026–27 squads · API-Football
