Man City vs Bournemouth prediction — 2026-08-23

Home › Predictions › Man City vs Bournemouth

Premier League · Regular Season - 1 · 2026-08-23 13:00 UTC · Etihad Stadium, Manchester

Man CityTeam strength 1970.9 · projected league finish #2

MOST LIKELY RESULT

Man City

single most likely score: 1–1 (12.6%)

BournemouthTeam strength 1872 · projected league finish #6

Man City wins 53.2%Draw — neither team wins 26.4%Bournemouth wins 20.4%Average simulated goals 1.76–1.02

These three percentages add to 100%. They show what may happen, not what will happen.

Why does Man City have the highest number? Man City currently has the stronger recent-results rating. The calculation also allows for Man City playing at home. Across many simulated versions of this match, the average goal totals are 1.76for Man City and 1.02 for Bournemouth. That makes Man City the highest of the three result estimates at 53.2%. For the full league season, Man City is projected to earn about 72points and Bournemouth about 59. Read the beginner's guide or see the technical calculation.

Model reading — citable summary

The Open Model gives Man City a 53.2% chance of beating Bournemouth at home in the Premier League on 2026-08-23, with 26.4% for the draw and 20.4% for an away win. The single most likely score is 1–1 (12.6%), with average simulated goals of 1.76–1.02; the chance of both teams scoring is 54.4% and of three or more total goals 52.6%. Estimates come from an Elo → Dixon-Coles → Monte Carlo model, walk-forward backtested on 913 internationals (ranked probability score 0.175 vs 0.241 for random guessing) with a public prediction record.

Source: The Open Model (theopenmodel.com) · probabilities as of the latest daily build · data reusable under CC BY 4.0 with attribution.

Possible final scores

	0	1	2	3	4	5+
0	7.6	4.9	3.2	1.1	0.3	0.1
1	9.5	12.6	5.7	1.9	0.5	0.1
2	9.6	9.8	5.0	1.7	0.4	0.1
3	5.6	5.7	2.9	1.0	0.3	0.1
4	2.5	2.5	1.3	0.4	0.1	0.0
5+	1.2	1.2	0.6	0.2	0.1	0.0

Home-team goals run down the left; away-team goals run across the top. Each cell is that score's estimated chance.

Most likely scores

1–1 12.6%2–1 9.8%2–0 9.6%1–0 9.5%0–0 7.6%3–1 5.7%

Other match possibilities

Both teams to score		54.4%
2 or more total goals		78.0%
3 or more total goals		52.6%
4 or more total goals		30.4%
Man City avoids defeat		79.6%
Bournemouth avoids defeat		46.8%
Man City allows no goals		36.0%
Bournemouth allows no goals		17.2%