Man City vs Aston Villa prediction — 2027-05-23

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Premier League · Regular Season - 37 · 2027-05-23 14:00 UTC · Etihad Stadium, Manchester

Man CityTeam strength 1970.9 · projected league finish #2

MOST LIKELY RESULT

Man City

single most likely score: 1–1 (13.1%)

Aston VillaTeam strength 1921 · projected league finish #3

Man City wins 47.3%Draw — neither team wins 27.5%Aston Villa wins 25.1%Average simulated goals 1.64–1.14

These three percentages add to 100%. They show what may happen, not what will happen.

Why does Man City have the highest number? Man City currently has the stronger recent-results rating. The calculation also allows for Man City playing at home. Across many simulated versions of this match, the average goal totals are 1.64for Man City and 1.14 for Aston Villa. That makes Man City the highest of the three result estimates at 47.3%. For the full league season, Man City is projected to earn about 72points and Aston Villa about 66. Read the beginner's guide or see the technical calculation.

Model reading — citable summary

The Open Model gives Man City a 47.3% chance of beating Aston Villa at home in the Premier League on 2027-05-23, with 27.5% for the draw and 25.1% for an away win. The single most likely score is 1–1 (13.1%), with average simulated goals of 1.64–1.14; the chance of both teams scoring is 56.4% and of three or more total goals 52.6%. Estimates come from an Elo → Dixon-Coles → Monte Carlo model, walk-forward backtested on 913 internationals (ranked probability score 0.175 vs 0.241 for random guessing) with a public prediction record.

Source: The Open Model (theopenmodel.com) · probabilities as of the latest daily build · data reusable under CC BY 4.0 with attribution.

Possible final scores

	0	1	2	3	4	5+
0	7.7	5.6	4.1	1.5	0.4	0.1
1	8.6	13.1	6.6	2.5	0.7	0.2
2	8.3	9.5	5.4	2.1	0.6	0.2
3	4.5	5.2	3.0	1.1	0.3	0.1
4	1.9	2.1	1.2	0.5	0.1	0.0
5+	0.8	0.9	0.5	0.2	0.1	0.0

Home-team goals run down the left; away-team goals run across the top. Each cell is that score's estimated chance.

Most likely scores

1–1 13.1%2–1 9.5%1–0 8.6%2–0 8.3%0–0 7.7%1–2 6.6%

Other match possibilities

Both teams to score		56.4%
2 or more total goals		78.1%
3 or more total goals		52.6%
4 or more total goals		30.4%
Man City avoids defeat		74.9%
Aston Villa avoids defeat		52.7%
Man City allows no goals		31.9%
Aston Villa allows no goals		19.5%