Malaga vs Rayo Vallecano prediction — 2027-03-14

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La Liga · Regular Season - 28 · 2027-03-14 16:00 UTC · Estadio La Rosaleda

MalagaTeam strength 1568.6 · projected league finish #19

MOST LIKELY RESULT

Rayo Vallecano

single most likely score: 1–1 (13.2%)

Rayo VallecanoTeam strength 1707.3 · projected league finish #6

Malaga wins 26.0%Draw — neither team wins 27.7%Rayo Vallecano wins 46.3%Average simulated goals 1.17–1.62

These three percentages add to 100%. They show what may happen, not what will happen.

Why does Rayo Vallecano have the highest number? Rayo Vallecano currently has the stronger recent-results rating. The calculation also allows for Malaga playing at home. Across many simulated versions of this match, the average goal totals are 1.17for Malaga and 1.62 for Rayo Vallecano. That makes Rayo Vallecano the highest of the three result estimates at 46.3%. For the full league season, Malaga is projected to earn about 37points and Rayo Vallecano about 55. Read the beginner's guide or see the technical calculation.

Model reading — citable summary

The Open Model gives Malaga a 26.0% chance of beating Rayo Vallecano at home in the La Liga on 2027-03-14, with 27.7% for the draw and 46.3% for an away win. The single most likely score is 1–1 (13.2%), with average simulated goals of 1.17–1.62; the chance of both teams scoring is 56.7% and of three or more total goals 52.6%. Estimates come from an Elo → Dixon-Coles → Monte Carlo model, walk-forward backtested on 913 internationals (ranked probability score 0.175 vs 0.241 for random guessing) with a public prediction record.

Source: The Open Model (theopenmodel.com) · probabilities as of the latest daily build · data reusable under CC BY 4.0 with attribution.

Possible final scores

	0	1	2	3	4	5+
0	7.7	8.5	8.1	4.4	1.8	0.8
1	5.7	13.2	9.4	5.1	2.1	0.9
2	4.2	6.8	5.5	3.0	1.2	0.5
3	1.6	2.6	2.1	1.1	0.5	0.2
4	0.5	0.8	0.6	0.3	0.1	0.1
5+	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0

Home-team goals run down the left; away-team goals run across the top. Each cell is that score's estimated chance.

Most likely scores

1–1 13.2%1–2 9.4%0–1 8.5%0–2 8.1%0–0 7.7%2–1 6.8%

Other match possibilities

Both teams to score		56.7%
2 or more total goals		78.1%
3 or more total goals		52.6%
4 or more total goals		30.4%
Malaga avoids defeat		53.7%
Rayo Vallecano avoids defeat		74.0%
Malaga allows no goals		19.9%
Rayo Vallecano allows no goals		31.2%