Mainz vs RB Leipzig prediction — 2027-04-10

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Bundesliga · Regular Season - 29 · 2027-04-10 13:30 UTC · Mewa Arena, Mainz

MainzTeam strength 1671.9 · projected league finish #8

MOST LIKELY RESULT

RB Leipzig

single most likely score: 1–1 (13.5%)

RB LeipzigTeam strength 1761.9 · projected league finish #5

Mainz wins 31.2%Draw — neither team wins 28.3%RB Leipzig wins 40.5%Average simulated goals 1.29–1.49

These three percentages add to 100%. They show what may happen, not what will happen.

Why does RB Leipzig have the highest number? RB Leipzig currently has the stronger recent-results rating. The calculation also allows for Mainz playing at home. Across many simulated versions of this match, the average goal totals are 1.29for Mainz and 1.49 for RB Leipzig. That makes RB Leipzig the highest of the three result estimates at 40.5%. For the full league season, Mainz is projected to earn about 47points and RB Leipzig about 57. Read the beginner's guide or see the technical calculation.

Model reading — citable summary

The Open Model gives Mainz a 31.2% chance of beating RB Leipzig at home in the Bundesliga on 2027-04-10, with 28.3% for the draw and 40.5% for an away win. The single most likely score is 1–1 (13.5%), with average simulated goals of 1.29–1.49; the chance of both teams scoring is 57.7% and of three or more total goals 52.6%. Estimates come from an Elo → Dixon-Coles → Monte Carlo model, walk-forward backtested on 913 internationals (ranked probability score 0.175 vs 0.241 for random guessing) with a public prediction record.

Source: The Open Model (theopenmodel.com) · probabilities as of the latest daily build · data reusable under CC BY 4.0 with attribution.

Possible final scores

	0	1	2	3	4	5+
0	7.7	7.7	6.9	3.4	1.3	0.5
1	6.4	13.5	8.9	4.4	1.7	0.6
2	5.1	7.7	5.7	2.9	1.1	0.4
3	2.2	3.3	2.5	1.2	0.5	0.2
4	0.7	1.1	0.8	0.4	0.1	0.1
5+	0.2	0.3	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0

Home-team goals run down the left; away-team goals run across the top. Each cell is that score's estimated chance.

Most likely scores

1–1 13.5%1–2 8.9%0–0 7.7%0–1 7.7%2–1 7.7%0–2 6.9%

Other match possibilities

Both teams to score		57.7%
2 or more total goals		78.1%
3 or more total goals		52.6%
4 or more total goals		30.4%
Mainz avoids defeat		59.5%
RB Leipzig avoids defeat		68.8%
Mainz allows no goals		22.5%
RB Leipzig allows no goals		27.6%