Mainz vs Leverkusen prediction — 2026-10-10

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Bundesliga · Regular Season - 5 · 2026-10-10 13:30 UTC · Mewa Arena, Mainz

MainzTeam strength 1671.9 · projected league finish #8

MOST LIKELY RESULT

Leverkusen

single most likely score: 1–1 (13.2%)

LeverkusenTeam strength 1804 · projected league finish #3

Mainz wins 26.7%Draw — neither team wins 27.8%Leverkusen wins 45.5%Average simulated goals 1.18–1.60

These three percentages add to 100%. They show what may happen, not what will happen.

Why does Leverkusen have the highest number? Leverkusen currently has the stronger recent-results rating. The calculation also allows for Mainz playing at home. Across many simulated versions of this match, the average goal totals are 1.18for Mainz and 1.60 for Leverkusen. That makes Leverkusen the highest of the three result estimates at 45.5%. For the full league season, Mainz is projected to earn about 47points and Leverkusen about 62. Read the beginner's guide or see the technical calculation.

Model reading — citable summary

The Open Model gives Mainz a 26.7% chance of beating Leverkusen at home in the Bundesliga on 2026-10-10, with 27.8% for the draw and 45.5% for an away win. The single most likely score is 1–1 (13.2%), with average simulated goals of 1.18–1.60; the chance of both teams scoring is 56.8% and of three or more total goals 52.6%. Estimates come from an Elo → Dixon-Coles → Monte Carlo model, walk-forward backtested on 913 internationals (ranked probability score 0.175 vs 0.241 for random guessing) with a public prediction record.

Source: The Open Model (theopenmodel.com) · probabilities as of the latest daily build · data reusable under CC BY 4.0 with attribution.

Possible final scores

	0	1	2	3	4	5+
0	7.7	8.4	7.9	4.2	1.7	0.7
1	5.8	13.2	9.4	5.0	2.0	0.9
2	4.3	6.9	5.5	3.0	1.2	0.5
3	1.7	2.7	2.2	1.2	0.5	0.2
4	0.5	0.8	0.6	0.3	0.1	0.1
5+	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0

Home-team goals run down the left; away-team goals run across the top. Each cell is that score's estimated chance.

Most likely scores

1–1 13.2%1–2 9.4%0–1 8.4%0–2 7.9%0–0 7.7%2–1 6.9%

Other match possibilities

Both teams to score		56.8%
2 or more total goals		78.1%
3 or more total goals		52.6%
4 or more total goals		30.4%
Mainz avoids defeat		54.5%
Leverkusen avoids defeat		73.3%
Mainz allows no goals		20.2%
Leverkusen allows no goals		30.7%