Mainz vs Elversberg prediction — 2027-03-06

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Bundesliga · Regular Season - 25 · 2027-03-06 14:30 UTC · Mewa Arena, Mainz

MainzTeam strength 1671.9 · projected league finish #8

MOST LIKELY RESULT

Mainz

single most likely score: 1–1 (11.8%)

ElversbergTeam strength 1523.4 · projected league finish #17

Mainz wins 59.2%Draw — neither team wins 24.8%Elversberg wins 16.1%Average simulated goals 1.88–0.90

These three percentages add to 100%. They show what may happen, not what will happen.

Why does Mainz have the highest number? Mainz currently has the stronger recent-results rating. The calculation also allows for Mainz playing at home. Across many simulated versions of this match, the average goal totals are 1.88for Mainz and 0.90 for Elversberg. That makes Mainz the highest of the three result estimates at 59.2%. For the full league season, Mainz is projected to earn about 47points and Elversberg about 30. Read the beginner's guide or see the technical calculation.

Model reading — citable summary

The Open Model gives Mainz a 59.2% chance of beating Elversberg at home in the Bundesliga on 2027-03-06, with 24.8% for the draw and 16.1% for an away win. The single most likely score is 1–1 (11.8%), with average simulated goals of 1.88–0.90; the chance of both teams scoring is 51.6% and of three or more total goals 52.6%. Estimates come from an Elo → Dixon-Coles → Monte Carlo model, walk-forward backtested on 913 internationals (ranked probability score 0.175 vs 0.241 for random guessing) with a public prediction record.

Source: The Open Model (theopenmodel.com) · probabilities as of the latest daily build · data reusable under CC BY 4.0 with attribution.

Possible final scores

	0	1	2	3	4	5+
0	7.6	4.2	2.5	0.7	0.2	0.0
1	10.3	11.8	4.7	1.4	0.3	0.1
2	11.0	9.9	4.4	1.3	0.3	0.1
3	6.9	6.2	2.8	0.8	0.2	0.0
4	3.3	2.9	1.3	0.4	0.1	0.0
5+	1.7	1.6	0.7	0.2	0.0	0.0

Home-team goals run down the left; away-team goals run across the top. Each cell is that score's estimated chance.

Most likely scores

1–1 11.8%2–0 11.0%1–0 10.3%2–1 9.9%0–0 7.6%3–0 6.9%

Other match possibilities

Both teams to score		51.6%
2 or more total goals		77.9%
3 or more total goals		52.6%
4 or more total goals		30.4%
Mainz avoids defeat		83.9%
Elversberg avoids defeat		40.8%
Mainz allows no goals		40.8%
Elversberg allows no goals		15.2%