Lorient vs Strasbourg prediction — 2027-05-08

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Ligue 1 · Regular Season - 31 · 2027-05-08 15:00 UTC · Stade du Moustoir, Lorient

LorientTeam strength 1639.1 · projected league finish #10

MOST LIKELY RESULT

Strasbourg

single most likely score: 1–1 (13.5%)

StrasbourgTeam strength 1710.8 · projected league finish #8

Lorient wins 33.2%Draw — neither team wins 28.4%Strasbourg wins 38.4%Average simulated goals 1.33–1.45

These three percentages add to 100%. They show what may happen, not what will happen.

Why does Strasbourg have the highest number? Strasbourg currently has the stronger recent-results rating. The calculation also allows for Lorient playing at home. Across many simulated versions of this match, the average goal totals are 1.33for Lorient and 1.45 for Strasbourg. That makes Strasbourg the highest of the three result estimates at 38.4%. For the full league season, Lorient is projected to earn about 44points and Strasbourg about 52. Read the beginner's guide or see the technical calculation.

Model reading — citable summary

The Open Model gives Lorient a 33.2% chance of beating Strasbourg at home in the Ligue 1 on 2027-05-08, with 28.4% for the draw and 38.4% for an away win. The single most likely score is 1–1 (13.5%), with average simulated goals of 1.33–1.45; the chance of both teams scoring is 57.9% and of three or more total goals 52.6%. Estimates come from an Elo → Dixon-Coles → Monte Carlo model, walk-forward backtested on 913 internationals (ranked probability score 0.175 vs 0.241 for random guessing) with a public prediction record.

Source: The Open Model (theopenmodel.com) · probabilities as of the latest daily build · data reusable under CC BY 4.0 with attribution.

Possible final scores

	0	1	2	3	4	5+
0	7.8	7.4	6.5	3.1	1.1	0.4
1	6.7	13.5	8.7	4.2	1.5	0.6
2	5.5	8.0	5.8	2.8	1.0	0.4
3	2.4	3.5	2.6	1.2	0.4	0.2
4	0.8	1.2	0.9	0.4	0.1	0.1
5+	0.3	0.4	0.3	0.1	0.1	0.0

Home-team goals run down the left; away-team goals run across the top. Each cell is that score's estimated chance.

Most likely scores

1–1 13.5%1–2 8.7%2–1 8.0%0–0 7.8%0–1 7.4%1–0 6.7%

Other match possibilities

Both teams to score		57.9%
2 or more total goals		78.1%
3 or more total goals		52.6%
4 or more total goals		30.4%
Lorient avoids defeat		61.6%
Strasbourg avoids defeat		66.8%
Lorient allows no goals		23.5%
Strasbourg allows no goals		26.4%