Liverpool vs Crystal Palace prediction — 2027-01-16

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Premier League · Regular Season - 21 · 2027-01-16 15:00 UTC · Anfield, Liverpool

LiverpoolTeam strength 1910.8 · projected league finish #5

MOST LIKELY RESULT

Liverpool

single most likely score: 1–1 (12.5%)

Crystal PalaceTeam strength 1803.8 · projected league finish #14

Liverpool wins 54.2%Draw — neither team wins 26.1%Crystal Palace wins 19.7%Average simulated goals 1.78–1.00

These three percentages add to 100%. They show what may happen, not what will happen.

Why does Liverpool have the highest number? Liverpool currently has the stronger recent-results rating. The calculation also allows for Liverpool playing at home. Across many simulated versions of this match, the average goal totals are 1.78for Liverpool and 1.00 for Crystal Palace. That makes Liverpool the highest of the three result estimates at 54.2%. For the full league season, Liverpool is projected to earn about 64points and Crystal Palace about 50. Read the beginner's guide or see the technical calculation.

Model reading — citable summary

The Open Model gives Liverpool a 54.2% chance of beating Crystal Palace at home in the Premier League on 2027-01-16, with 26.1% for the draw and 19.7% for an away win. The single most likely score is 1–1 (12.5%), with average simulated goals of 1.78–1.00; the chance of both teams scoring is 54.0% and of three or more total goals 52.6%. Estimates come from an Elo → Dixon-Coles → Monte Carlo model, walk-forward backtested on 913 internationals (ranked probability score 0.175 vs 0.241 for random guessing) with a public prediction record.

Source: The Open Model (theopenmodel.com) · probabilities as of the latest daily build · data reusable under CC BY 4.0 with attribution.

Possible final scores

	0	1	2	3	4	5+
0	7.6	4.8	3.1	1.0	0.3	0.1
1	9.6	12.5	5.5	1.8	0.5	0.1
2	9.8	9.8	4.9	1.6	0.4	0.1
3	5.8	5.8	2.9	1.0	0.2	0.1
4	2.6	2.6	1.3	0.4	0.1	0.0
5+	1.3	1.3	0.6	0.2	0.1	0.0

Home-team goals run down the left; away-team goals run across the top. Each cell is that score's estimated chance.

Most likely scores

1–1 12.5%2–1 9.8%2–0 9.8%1–0 9.6%0–0 7.6%3–1 5.8%

Other match possibilities

Both teams to score		54.0%
2 or more total goals		78.0%
3 or more total goals		52.6%
4 or more total goals		30.4%
Liverpool avoids defeat		80.3%
Crystal Palace avoids defeat		45.8%
Liverpool allows no goals		36.7%
Crystal Palace allows no goals		16.9%