Home › Predictions › Lille vs Troyes
Ligue 1 · Regular Season - 4 · 2026-09-12 15:00 UTC · Stade Pierre-Mauroy
Lille
TroyesThese three percentages add to 100%. They show what may happen, not what will happen.
Why does Lille have the highest number? Lille currently has the stronger recent-results rating. The calculation also allows for Lille playing at home. Across many simulated versions of this match, the average goal totals are 2.07for Lille and 0.71 for Troyes. That makes Lille the highest of the three result estimates at 67.8%. For the full league season, Lille is projected to earn about 56points and Troyes about 31. Read the beginner's guide or see the technical calculation.
The Open Model gives Lille a 67.8% chance of beating Troyes at home in the Ligue 1 on 2026-09-12, with 21.7% for the draw and 10.5% for an away win. The single most likely score is 2–0 (13.3%), with average simulated goals of 2.07–0.71; the chance of both teams scoring is 45.7% and of three or more total goals 52.6%. Estimates come from an Elo → Dixon-Coles → Monte Carlo model, walk-forward backtested on 913 internationals (ranked probability score 0.175 vs 0.241 for random guessing) with a public prediction record.
Source: The Open Model (theopenmodel.com) · probabilities as of the latest daily build · data reusable under CC BY 4.0 with attribution.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 10.3 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 13.3 | 9.4 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 9.1 | 6.5 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 4.7 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 2.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Home-team goals run down the left; away-team goals run across the top. Each cell is that score's estimated chance.
| Both teams to score | 45.7% | |
| 2 or more total goals | 77.8% | |
| 3 or more total goals | 52.6% | |
| 4 or more total goals | 30.4% | |
| Lille avoids defeat | 89.5% | |
| Troyes avoids defeat | 32.2% | |
| Lille allows no goals | 49.1% | |
| Troyes allows no goals | 12.6% |
Forwards to watch
2026–27 squads · API-Football
