Leverkusen vs Union Berlin prediction — 2026-09-05

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Bundesliga · Regular Season - 2 · 2026-09-05 13:30 UTC · BayArena, Leverkusen

LeverkusenTeam strength 1804 · projected league finish #3

MOST LIKELY RESULT

Leverkusen

single most likely score: 2–0 (12.1%)

Union BerlinTeam strength 1619.4 · projected league finish #12

Leverkusen wins 63.4%Draw — neither team wins 23.3%Union Berlin wins 13.2%Average simulated goals 1.97–0.81

These three percentages add to 100%. They show what may happen, not what will happen.

Why does Leverkusen have the highest number? Leverkusen currently has the stronger recent-results rating. The calculation also allows for Leverkusen playing at home. Across many simulated versions of this match, the average goal totals are 1.97for Leverkusen and 0.81 for Union Berlin. That makes Leverkusen the highest of the three result estimates at 63.4%. For the full league season, Leverkusen is projected to earn about 62points and Union Berlin about 40. Read the beginner's guide or see the technical calculation.

Model reading — citable summary

The Open Model gives Leverkusen a 63.4% chance of beating Union Berlin at home in the Bundesliga on 2026-09-05, with 23.3% for the draw and 13.2% for an away win. The single most likely score is 2–0 (12.1%), with average simulated goals of 1.97–0.81; the chance of both teams scoring is 49.0% and of three or more total goals 52.6%. Estimates come from an Elo → Dixon-Coles → Monte Carlo model, walk-forward backtested on 913 internationals (ranked probability score 0.175 vs 0.241 for random guessing) with a public prediction record.

Source: The Open Model (theopenmodel.com) · probabilities as of the latest daily build · data reusable under CC BY 4.0 with attribution.

Possible final scores

	0	1	2	3	4
0	7.5	3.7	2.0	0.5	0.1
1	10.9	11.2	4.0	1.1	0.2
2	12.1	9.7	3.9	1.1	0.2
3	7.9	6.4	2.6	0.7	0.1
4	3.9	3.2	1.3	0.3	0.1
5+	2.2	1.8	0.7	0.2	0.0

Home-team goals run down the left; away-team goals run across the top. Each cell is that score's estimated chance.

Most likely scores

2–0 12.1%1–1 11.2%1–0 10.9%2–1 9.7%3–0 7.9%0–0 7.5%

Other match possibilities

Both teams to score		49.0%
2 or more total goals		77.8%
3 or more total goals		52.6%
4 or more total goals		30.4%
Leverkusen avoids defeat		86.8%
Union Berlin avoids defeat		36.6%
Leverkusen allows no goals		44.6%
Union Berlin allows no goals		13.9%