Leverkusen vs RB Leipzig prediction — 2026-09-19

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Bundesliga · Regular Season - 4 · 2026-09-19 13:30 UTC · BayArena, Leverkusen

LeverkusenTeam strength 1804 · projected league finish #3

MOST LIKELY RESULT

Leverkusen

single most likely score: 1–1 (13.2%)

RB LeipzigTeam strength 1761.9 · projected league finish #5

Leverkusen wins 46.4%Draw — neither team wins 27.7%RB Leipzig wins 25.9%Average simulated goals 1.62–1.16

These three percentages add to 100%. They show what may happen, not what will happen.

Why does Leverkusen have the highest number? Leverkusen currently has the stronger recent-results rating. The calculation also allows for Leverkusen playing at home. Across many simulated versions of this match, the average goal totals are 1.62for Leverkusen and 1.16 for RB Leipzig. That makes Leverkusen the highest of the three result estimates at 46.4%. For the full league season, Leverkusen is projected to earn about 62points and RB Leipzig about 57. Read the beginner's guide or see the technical calculation.

Model reading — citable summary

The Open Model gives Leverkusen a 46.4% chance of beating RB Leipzig at home in the Bundesliga on 2026-09-19, with 27.7% for the draw and 25.9% for an away win. The single most likely score is 1–1 (13.2%), with average simulated goals of 1.62–1.16; the chance of both teams scoring is 56.6% and of three or more total goals 52.6%. Estimates come from an Elo → Dixon-Coles → Monte Carlo model, walk-forward backtested on 913 internationals (ranked probability score 0.175 vs 0.241 for random guessing) with a public prediction record.

Source: The Open Model (theopenmodel.com) · probabilities as of the latest daily build · data reusable under CC BY 4.0 with attribution.

Possible final scores

	0	1	2	3	4	5+
0	7.7	5.7	4.2	1.6	0.5	0.1
1	8.5	13.2	6.8	2.6	0.8	0.2
2	8.1	9.4	5.5	2.1	0.6	0.2
3	4.4	5.1	3.0	1.1	0.3	0.1
4	1.8	2.1	1.2	0.5	0.1	0.0
5+	0.8	0.9	0.5	0.2	0.1	0.0

Home-team goals run down the left; away-team goals run across the top. Each cell is that score's estimated chance.

Most likely scores

1–1 13.2%2–1 9.4%1–0 8.5%2–0 8.1%0–0 7.7%1–2 6.8%

Other match possibilities

Both teams to score		56.6%
2 or more total goals		78.1%
3 or more total goals		52.6%
4 or more total goals		30.4%
Leverkusen avoids defeat		74.1%
RB Leipzig avoids defeat		53.6%
Leverkusen allows no goals		31.2%
RB Leipzig allows no goals		19.8%