Leverkusen vs Freiburg prediction — 2026-10-17

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Bundesliga · Regular Season - 6 · 2026-10-17 13:30 UTC · BayArena, Leverkusen

LeverkusenTeam strength 1804 · projected league finish #3

MOST LIKELY RESULT

Leverkusen

single most likely score: 1–1 (12.8%)

FreiburgTeam strength 1724.9 · projected league finish #6

Leverkusen wins 50.9%Draw — neither team wins 26.9%Freiburg wins 22.3%Average simulated goals 1.71–1.07

These three percentages add to 100%. They show what may happen, not what will happen.

Why does Leverkusen have the highest number? Leverkusen currently has the stronger recent-results rating. The calculation also allows for Leverkusen playing at home. Across many simulated versions of this match, the average goal totals are 1.71for Leverkusen and 1.07 for Freiburg. That makes Leverkusen the highest of the three result estimates at 50.9%. For the full league season, Leverkusen is projected to earn about 62points and Freiburg about 53. Read the beginner's guide or see the technical calculation.

Model reading — citable summary

The Open Model gives Leverkusen a 50.9% chance of beating Freiburg at home in the Bundesliga on 2026-10-17, with 26.9% for the draw and 22.3% for an away win. The single most likely score is 1–1 (12.8%), with average simulated goals of 1.71–1.07; the chance of both teams scoring is 55.3% and of three or more total goals 52.6%. Estimates come from an Elo → Dixon-Coles → Monte Carlo model, walk-forward backtested on 913 internationals (ranked probability score 0.175 vs 0.241 for random guessing) with a public prediction record.

Source: The Open Model (theopenmodel.com) · probabilities as of the latest daily build · data reusable under CC BY 4.0 with attribution.

Possible final scores

	0	1	2	3	4	5+
0	7.7	5.2	3.6	1.3	0.3	0.1
1	9.1	12.8	6.1	2.2	0.6	0.2
2	9.1	9.7	5.2	1.9	0.5	0.1
3	5.2	5.5	3.0	1.1	0.3	0.1
4	2.2	2.4	1.3	0.5	0.1	0.0
5+	1.0	1.1	0.6	0.2	0.1	0.0

Home-team goals run down the left; away-team goals run across the top. Each cell is that score's estimated chance.

Most likely scores

1–1 12.8%2–1 9.7%1–0 9.1%2–0 9.1%0–0 7.7%1–2 6.1%

Other match possibilities

Both teams to score		55.3%
2 or more total goals		78.0%
3 or more total goals		52.6%
4 or more total goals		30.4%
Leverkusen avoids defeat		77.7%
Freiburg avoids defeat		49.1%
Leverkusen allows no goals		34.3%
Freiburg allows no goals		18.1%