Leverkusen vs Dortmund prediction — 2027-04-03

Home › Predictions › Leverkusen vs Dortmund

Bundesliga · Regular Season - 28 · 2027-04-03 13:30 UTC · BayArena, Leverkusen

LeverkusenTeam strength 1804 · projected league finish #3

MOST LIKELY RESULT

Leverkusen

single most likely score: 1–1 (13.5%)

DortmundTeam strength 1834.8 · projected league finish #2

Leverkusen wins 37.8%Draw — neither team wins 28.5%Dortmund wins 33.7%Average simulated goals 1.44–1.35

These three percentages add to 100%. They show what may happen, not what will happen.

Why does Leverkusen have the highest number? Dortmund currently has the stronger recent-results rating. The calculation also allows for Leverkusen playing at home. Across many simulated versions of this match, the average goal totals are 1.44for Leverkusen and 1.35 for Dortmund. That makes Leverkusen the highest of the three result estimates at 37.8%. For the full league season, Leverkusen is projected to earn about 62points and Dortmund about 65. Read the beginner's guide or see the technical calculation.

Model reading — citable summary

The Open Model gives Leverkusen a 37.8% chance of beating Dortmund at home in the Bundesliga on 2027-04-03, with 28.5% for the draw and 33.7% for an away win. The single most likely score is 1–1 (13.5%), with average simulated goals of 1.44–1.35; the chance of both teams scoring is 57.9% and of three or more total goals 52.6%. Estimates come from an Elo → Dixon-Coles → Monte Carlo model, walk-forward backtested on 913 internationals (ranked probability score 0.175 vs 0.241 for random guessing) with a public prediction record.

Source: The Open Model (theopenmodel.com) · probabilities as of the latest daily build · data reusable under CC BY 4.0 with attribution.

Possible final scores

	0	1	2	3	4	5+
0	7.8	6.8	5.6	2.5	0.8	0.3
1	7.3	13.5	8.1	3.6	1.2	0.4
2	6.4	8.6	5.8	2.6	0.9	0.3
3	3.1	4.1	2.8	1.2	0.4	0.1
4	1.1	1.5	1.0	0.4	0.1	0.1
5+	0.4	0.5	0.4	0.2	0.1	0.0

Home-team goals run down the left; away-team goals run across the top. Each cell is that score's estimated chance.

Most likely scores

1–1 13.5%2–1 8.6%1–2 8.1%0–0 7.8%1–0 7.3%0–1 6.8%

Other match possibilities

Both teams to score		57.9%
2 or more total goals		78.1%
3 or more total goals		52.6%
4 or more total goals		30.4%
Leverkusen avoids defeat		66.3%
Dortmund avoids defeat		62.2%
Leverkusen allows no goals		26.0%
Dortmund allows no goals		23.8%