Lens vs Strasbourg prediction — 2027-03-06

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Ligue 1 · Regular Season - 23 · 2027-03-06 16:00 UTC · Stade Bollaert-Delelis, Lens

LensTeam strength 1767 · projected league finish #2

MOST LIKELY RESULT

Lens

single most likely score: 1–1 (13.1%)

StrasbourgTeam strength 1710.8 · projected league finish #8

Lens wins 48.1%Draw — neither team wins 27.4%Strasbourg wins 24.5%Average simulated goals 1.65–1.13

These three percentages add to 100%. They show what may happen, not what will happen.

Why does Lens have the highest number? Lens currently has the stronger recent-results rating. The calculation also allows for Lens playing at home. Across many simulated versions of this match, the average goal totals are 1.65for Lens and 1.13 for Strasbourg. That makes Lens the highest of the three result estimates at 48.1%. For the full league season, Lens is projected to earn about 59points and Strasbourg about 52. Read the beginner's guide or see the technical calculation.

Model reading — citable summary

The Open Model gives Lens a 48.1% chance of beating Strasbourg at home in the Ligue 1 on 2027-03-06, with 27.4% for the draw and 24.5% for an away win. The single most likely score is 1–1 (13.1%), with average simulated goals of 1.65–1.13; the chance of both teams scoring is 56.2% and of three or more total goals 52.6%. Estimates come from an Elo → Dixon-Coles → Monte Carlo model, walk-forward backtested on 913 internationals (ranked probability score 0.175 vs 0.241 for random guessing) with a public prediction record.

Source: The Open Model (theopenmodel.com) · probabilities as of the latest daily build · data reusable under CC BY 4.0 with attribution.

Possible final scores

	0	1	2	3	4	5+
0	7.7	5.5	3.9	1.5	0.4	0.1
1	8.7	13.1	6.5	2.5	0.7	0.2
2	8.5	9.6	5.4	2.0	0.6	0.2
3	4.7	5.3	3.0	1.1	0.3	0.1
4	1.9	2.2	1.2	0.5	0.1	0.0
5+	0.9	1.0	0.5	0.2	0.1	0.0

Home-team goals run down the left; away-team goals run across the top. Each cell is that score's estimated chance.

Most likely scores

1–1 13.1%2–1 9.6%1–0 8.7%2–0 8.5%0–0 7.7%1–2 6.5%

Other match possibilities

Both teams to score		56.2%
2 or more total goals		78.1%
3 or more total goals		52.6%
4 or more total goals		30.4%
Lens avoids defeat		75.5%
Strasbourg avoids defeat		51.9%
Lens allows no goals		32.4%
Strasbourg allows no goals		19.1%